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000
FXUS63 KMQT 152105
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
505 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather continues today. RHs again fall to near 20% over
  interior west half portions..especially close to the WI
  border, causing some fire weather concerns although winds will
  be lighter.
- Dry weather continues through Tuesday afternoon. RHs fall to
  20-30% across much of the UP on Tuesday, causing elevated fire
  weather conditions with wind gusts increasing to 25-30 mph.
- A low pressure tracks through the Upper Great Lakes late
  Tuesday through early Thursday, causing widespread rain
  showers and gusty winds.
- Chances of mainly light precipitation (20-40%) hang on
  Thursday through Saturday, though uncertainty exists on
  timing, and precipitation type.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 504 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

It`s been a very nice spring day across the UP with most places
warming into the 50s and 60s, but sites along the Lake Superior
shoreline were kept in the 40s by northerly winds. Lake breeze
boundaries developed off both lakes this afternoon, but northerly
flow allowed the Superior breeze to dominate. Once satellite imagery
became available, both prescribed burns that occurred today were
easy to see as hot spots on the 3.9 um channel and smoke plumes were
apparent on visible imagery too. As of 5 PM EDT, the burn near Doe
Lake even developed a smoke plume that our radar picked up extending
to around 7 kft. Min RH values dipped into the mid 20s near the
Wisconsin state line, that when combined with observed fire behavior
confirms the volatile fire wx conditions in place this spring.
Please obey all burn restrictions.

Looking ahead through tonight, ridging builds to 1028 mb over
Ontario tonight while extending a 1024 mb ridge axis across the
eastern Great Lakes Basin. This is likely to bring light and
variable winds and a continuation of mostly clear skies. As a
result, temps cool efficiently this evening and overnight with lows
possibly dipping into the upper 20s across the interior east by
Tuesday morning. It should stay 5-10F warmer across the west where
ESE winds increase overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

By Tuesday, the UP will be under sharp 500mb ridging as a closed low
spins over the Central Plains. At the surface, the pressure gradient
builds as a 1030mb high drops from the Hudson Bay to northern
Ontario while a 990mb low is over Nebraska. In spite of increasing
high and mid level cloud cover per the 00Z HREF, high temperatures
remain above normal and dry air in the lower parts of the
atmospheric column will create conditions supporting RHs falling to
the 20s and high teens. With dry easterly wind flowing off the
Canadian Shield at up to 20 mph gusting to around 30 mph, fire
weather during the afternoon hours is particularly concerning.

The saving grace for fire weather will be the eventual arrival of
widespread rain showers as the surface low weakens slightly as it
tracks through the UP by late Wednesday. Ensemble trends have
gradually slowed the arrival of precipitation late Tuesday, but
nearly all the ensemble members bring precipitation to the MI/WI
state line (also where the highest fire weather conditions will be)
by 06Z Wednesday. Southerly flow ahead of the low`s arrival will
bring a significant increase of Gulf of Mexico moisture, with NAEFS
vapor transport in the 90th to 97.5th percentile of model
climatology. Abundant moisture plus present forcing equals
widespread precipitation, the 27th to 75th percentile range of
QPF narrowed down to around 0.5-1.25 inches. While this will be
a good soaking rainfall (encouraging for fire and drought
partners), hydro concerns are fairly low given the antecedent
dry conditions. A few rumbles of thunder can`t be ruled out in
the east and south as about 10-20% of the LREF members show
100-500 J/kg of surface CAPE Wednesday. The upwards trend in
winds on Tuesday will continue into Wednesday as the low tracks
through the region, with wind gusts up to 40 mph possible over
the Keweenaw Peninsula and up to 30 mph across much of the rest
of the UP. While cooler air will arrive on the back side of the
low, model soundings only show limited potential for a few
snowflakes mixing in for Gogebic County Thursday morning.

Brief ridging will follow behind the passage of the low Thursday,
significantly cutting into the PoPs. Ensemble agreement is improving
on a northern stream trough arriving later Thursday, but the PoP
trend has gone down and the temperature trend has gone warmer, with
chances of 1 inch of snow accumulation now falling to just 20-30% in
the 00Z GEFS and even lower in the Euro and Canadian ensembles. With
PWATs falling to just 0.25 inches by Sunday, whatever precip does
fall over the weekend should be fairly low-impact. High pressure is
expected to come over much of the central CONUS Saturday through
Monday which should spell the eventual end of showers and cause
some breaks in the clouds. This should allow temperatures to
come back to normal into next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 254 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Mostly sunny skies and VFR cigs prevail today and tonight. The Lake
Superior lake breeze is locally backing winds northeasterly at SAW
this afternoon with northwest winds elsewhere. High pressure
building over the area tonight results in a period of light and
variable winds. Then east-southeast winds increase on Tuesday and
become gusty at IWD/CMX late in the TAF period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 449 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Under a ridge of high pressure, winds will remain at or below 20 kt
today. As a low pressure begins to move out of the Central Plains on
Tuesday, winds gradually increase to northeasterly gales to 40 kt in
western Lake Superior Tuesday afternoon. Easterly gales overspread
the lake by late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the low passes
through the Upper Great Lakes. Winds fall below gales in the
immediate wake of the low late Wednesday, though the enhanced
pressure gradient will keep westerly winds of 20-30 kt in the
forecast into the weekend. During the northeasterly gales late
Tuesday, waves of 10-13 feet are possible with 8-12 feet waves on
Wednesday across the whole lake, locally up to 15 feet between Isle
Royale and the Keweenaw Peninsula. Waves fall below 6 feet early
Thursday but remain at 2-5 feet until late Saturday.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
  Gale Warning from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ Tuesday to 2 PM EDT /1
    PM CDT/ Wednesday for LSZ162.

  Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon
     for LSZ242>244-263-264.

  Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon
     for LSZ245>251-265>267.

Lake Michigan...
  Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for
     LMZ221-248-250.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EK
LONG TERM...GS
AVIATION...EK
MARINE...GS