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000
FXUS66 KMTR 252350
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
450 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cool temperatures will continue today. A cold front will bring
a chance for light rain beginning tonight, with strong winds
Friday night. Increasing sunshine will kick off a warming trend
Sat-Tue.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 156 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Cloudy conditions continue, with breezy to gusty northwest wind this
afternoon and evening as the upper level pattern continues to shift
behind the low pressure center`s passage. An additional trough passes
through the area overnight, bringing widespread drizzle chances with
light rain possible on higher elevations and along the coast.

Precip chances pause Friday afternoon, but cloud cover will still be
persistent. Friday`s pressure gradient change will make for even
breezier conditions that afternoon specifically for higher peaks and
along the Big Sur coast. The trough looks to be slow to exit
Saturday morning with additional drizzle chances expected along with
another round of light rain chances on higher elevations and along
the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

The new upper level pattern  keeps mostly northwest onshore flow into
the weekend. While the immediate coast will continue to struggle
with cloud cover, most areas slightly more inland and well into the
interior will see quicker clearing times. This will place most areas
back into the 60s and 70s into the next work week, while the coast
will stick to around 60 degree highs. By the late week, some of
those more interior locations look to break into the low 80s.

Longer term models are in better agreement that the next rain maker
may just stay well to the north of the Bay Area and Central Coast as
the ECMWF model families have adjusted the next trough to arrive
over Seattle rather than the Bay area.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 440 PM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Current satellite showing cloud cover increasing across the region
with MVFR cigs on the board for a few locations around the Bay
Area. High confidence in MVFR cigs to become more widespread
across most of the rest of the Bay Area tonight. Winds remain
breezy overnight and through Friday as a secondary trough moves
through the region by Friday afternoon. Areas of -DZ are possible
along coastal terminals late tonight into early Friday morning.
Cloud cover is expected to thin late Friday morning, however there
is low confidence in any clearing times noted in TAFs.

Vicinity of SFO...Expecting MVFR cigs through the night with some
degree of scattering out Friday morning. As mentioned above,
confidence is low in timing of any clearing of cloud cover.
However, chances improve as late morning approaches. Winds remain
breezy from the NW through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...Expecting MVFR cigs to fill in overnight
with slight -DZ chance through the early morning hours Friday.
Winds remain breezy overnight with a relatively short window of
diminishing overnight before increasing again Friday morning.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1056 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Moderate northwesterly winds persist through Friday morning with
occasional fresh to strong gusts through various portions of the
coastal waters, mostly in the southern waters. Winds strengthen
to become strong and gusty into Friday afternoon with gale-force
gusts likely near the Big Sur coast. These strong and gusty
northwesterly winds last through the weekend and into at least the
early portion of next week, bringing hazardous conditions for
small craft vessels. Moderate period northwest swell will
continue to move through the waters this weekend, with a new
longer period northwest swell train entering the waters Sunday.
Light, long period southerly swell continues through end of
forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay-
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes
     0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60
     NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Murdock
LONG TERM....Murdock
AVIATION...Behringer
MARINE...Behringer

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