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000
FXUS63 KOAX 191046
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
546 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Below-normal temperatures through this weekend with freezing
  conditions likely (>90%) Saturday and Sunday mornings.

- Warming temperatures next week with a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms Monday and/or Monday night, and again late in
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Today through Sunday:

An amplified midlevel trough from Ontario into the Upper-MS
Valley and northern Plains early this morning will shift east
today ahead of another shortwave trough digging south through
the northern and central Plains tonight into Saturday night. In
the low levels, surface ridging currently from the lee of the
Canadian Rockies into central Plains will weaken today with
another cold front moving through the region tonight into
Saturday morning. High pressure in the wake of the cold front
will then build through the area on Sunday.

A band of midlevel clouds currently across portions of southeast
NE and southwest IA may may expand north by this afternoon with
highs ranging from around 50 near the SD border to upper 50s
across southeast NE and southwest IA. Breezy conditions are
expected to develop across parts of northeast NE into west-
central IA with gusts up to 25 to 30 mph. However, given the
recent rainfall, we don`t anticipate any wildfire concerns.

The clouds will decrease from north-to-south tonight with
temperatures falling below freezing, especially north of I-80.
Lingering cloudiness is expected to keep temperatures slightly
above the freezing mark in southeast NE.

A slightly cooler air mass will filter into the region Saturday
with highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s. We could see an
increase in clouds again Saturday before skies clear again
Saturday night. Winds will also become light Saturday night into
Sunday morning, allowing for good radiational cooling. As such,
it appears that overnight lows will fall before the freezing
mark at most locations.

By Sunday afternoon, low-level warm advection is forecast to
develop across the area, allowing temperatures to bounce back
into the low 60s.

The models have trended west/southwest with any precipitation,
so this forecast update will indicate a dry forecast through
Sunday.

Monday through Thursday:

The 00z global ensembles indicate slight timing differences on
the progression of a shortwave trough through the northern
Plains and upper-MS Valley Monday and Monday night. And, those
differences aloft lead to uncertainty in the timing of the
associated surface cold front through the area. Nonetheless, the
models suggest mean PW values increasing to around 0.75" ahead
of the front, which will support a chance of showers and perhaps
an isolated storm or two on Monday and/or Monday night.

Thereafter, attention turns to the next significant trough,
which is forecast to emerge into the Great Plains late next
week.

In regard to temperatures, we will see a return to near-normal
daytime readings next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 544 AM CDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Winds through 06Z are expected to prevail out of the northwest
at 5 to 15 knots. After 06Z, winds will back and become more
westerly/southwesterly. Some gusts up to 25 knots will be
possible between 17Z and 00Z north of I-80 (KOFK and KOMA).
These gusts will be possible at KLNK as well, but frequency of
gusts appears too low to include in TAFs at this time. VFR
ceilings and visibilities are expected to prevail at all TAF
sites for the duration of the forecast period.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>052.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for NEZ053-065>068-
     078-088>093.
IA...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ043-055-056-
     069-080.
     Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for IAZ079-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Mead
AVIATION...Darrah