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000
FXUS63 KOAX 091710
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1210 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry conditions are expected through the week with high
  temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.

- Very high to extreme fire danger will be present across the
  area on Thursday and Saturday.

- Weekend temperatures may reach the 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

Current temps have slipped into the 30s in some locations early
this morning and the breezy winds have come to a definitive end
with plenty of calm obs and every single location under 8 knots
at the moment.

This correlates, too, to the departure of the stacked low now
moving into the Great Lakes. The pressure gradient has slackened
for the time being. Another deep upper low spins over Tuscon,
AZ. Caught up in the sub-tropical jet, it will push due east
over the next couple of days and open up as it does.

.TODAY...

Between the two lows, weak zonal flow is forecast for today.
Surface winds are likely to be the slowest of the week, leaving
a pleasant day in the offing. Areas south of I-80 won`t see much
change in temperatures. North of the interstate sees Monday`s
cloud cover replaced by mostly sunny skies and warmer temps by
about 5-10 degrees.

.WEDNESDAY and THURSDAY...

As the upper low currently over the Desert Southwest pushes
east, it will ingest gulf moisture and produce a wide swath of
showers and strong/severe thunderstorms. Model trends over the
past 36 hours have precipitation pushing increasingly farther
north. Still, meaningful PoPs remain south of this CWA and will
primarily affect Missouri and central and eastern Iowa.

A dry boundary pushes through this CWA - attendant to a
shortwave moving through the Dakotas. The evening will be
breezy but - again - the precip will miss eastern Nebraska and
southwest Iowa. This time it will miss us to the north.

The strong northwesterly flow picks up on Wednesday evening and
peaks on Thursday. After an afternoon near 70 on Wednesday,
Thursday will be about 10 degrees cooler. After examining some
forecast soundings, don`t see how NBM comes up with widespread
45 mph gusts on Thursday. Have toned them down by 5-10mph.
Still, expect fire danger to peak in the very high to extreme
category thanks to the strong winds and RH values slipping into
the 20% range.

.FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND...

As the trofing on the east coast deepens and gains a negative
tilt, ridging builds over the front range and noses into the
High Plains by Friday. Southerly winds develop and thickness
climbs as temps approach 70 on Friday and 80 by Saturday. Sunday
might see yet another 3-6 degrees added to our afternoon highs.

Both days will be critically dry with RH values slipping into
the 20s. Satuday`s fire danger may be higher overall thanks to
the stronger southerly winds. I wouldn`t want to be a dry patch
of grass on either day.

The pattern is expected to break down early next week and bring
a chance for precipitation by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. West to
northwest winds at sustained speeds less than 12 kts. This
afternoon and late morning Wednesday, gusts up to 20kts are
possible for KOFK.


&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Fortin