429
FXUS64 KOHX 050536
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1236 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 843 PM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Good evening out there, Middle Tennesseans. Radar is finally
clear at update time and flooding concerns have come to an end for
now. It still feels "heavy" out there; relative humidity is near
or at 100% for everyone. With that, there could be some areas of
patchy dense fog overnight, more for our western and southwestern
counties where more clearing is expected. Overnight lows will
stay in the 60s tonight. A passing shower is possible, but it
should be mostly dry for the remainder of tonight. More showers
and thunderstorms are on the way tomorrow evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Scattered showers and storms have been focused along the I-40
corridor today. We`ll likely see the peak of the activity over the
next couple of hours, then coverage should fall off as these
storms weaken and move northeast. While there is little forcing
and shear to work with today, some updrafts could become strong,
producing lightning and subsevere gusty winds. Activity will
gradually taper off this afternoon. Cloud cover is keeping
temperatures from becoming too warm too fast, but we could still
see highs in the upper 70s and lows 80s before the day ends. Rain
chances remain low tonight for most of the area. Our southern
counties retain the best chance for an overnight shower and storm
heading into Sunday. Temperatures should be slightly warmer Sunday
afternoon as the bulk of any precip remains outside of Middle TN.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 1123 AM CDT Sat May 4 2024

Showers and thunderstorms build back into the area late Sunday
night into Monday as a shortwave swings into the Tennessee Valley
from the southwest. There may be enough instability and shear to
support a few strong storms on Monday, but severe isn`t expected
at that point. The better potential for strong to possibly severe
storms exists on Tuesday and Wednesday. A low pressure system over
the northern plains will swing a front through the Mississippi
Valley Tuesday. We`ll just see the tail end of that...which will
help push SBCAPE values over 2000 j/kg in our western counties along
with an increase in bulk shear values (around 45 knots). PWATS are
expected to be between 1.25 and 1.4 inches as well, so some strong
to severe storms aren`t out of the question that afternoon,
especially over our west where instability appears to be
greatest. Wednesday will be similar, but with the higher CAPE
values pushing further into Middle TN. Another developing low
pressure system is expected to stir up storms to our west...where
the better upper support exists, but we`ll still be close enough
for some strong to severe storms to develop Wednesday afternoon
and overnight.

The good news is that we should see a break in precip after
Wednesday night`s system. Some models are slow to move the rain
out, but at some point Thursday or Friday we should see a
reprieve from the repeated rounds of showers. Temperatures are
also expected to back off as we head into Friday thanks to a
passing upper wave and northwest winds aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Mainly VFR conditions are expected for this TAF cycle, but with
small dew point depressions and light winds, MVFR fog is possible
shortly before sunrise. More TS will move in tomorrow evening and
likely affect CKV/BNA/MQY before 05Z.

Winds will be light and mainly southwesterly.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      85  66  80  67 /  30  70  60  30
Clarksville    82  64  78  66 /  30  80  70  30
Crossville     79  61  75  61 /  40  50  60  40
Columbia       85  64  80  65 /  30  80  70  30
Cookeville     80  63  77  63 /  40  50  70  40
Jamestown      80  61  76  61 /  40  40  70  50
Lawrenceburg   85  64  80  65 /  30  80  60  30
Murfreesboro   86  64  81  65 /  30  70  60  30
Waverly        85  64  79  66 /  40  80  80  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Whitehead
LONG TERM....Whitehead
AVIATION.....Unger