121
FXUS64 KOHX 060527
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
1227 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 904 PM CDT Sun May 5 2024

A broken line of showers continues to push to the northeast at
update time. Very little in the way of convection, but there are
still some lightning strikes out there, so don`t be surprised if
you hear a rumble or two of thunder. The line itself is moving
very slow and the latest CAMs show a few more scattered showers
moving in from the south, so rain will likely stick around through
the overnight hours. Overnight lows will be in the 60s again
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

After some patchy morning fog, the area has cleared up with ample
sunshine allowing things to feel a little summer-humid-like. A few
showers have developed across the Plateau region so far and this
will be the weather story for a good chunk of the day. Although we
aren`t expecting anything decently organized until later tonight
when an upper level impulse rolls through, a few isolated showers
and maybe some rumbles of thunder will pop up through this
afternoon. Most outdoor events should be good, but always keep an
eye on that radar in case you don`t want to get wet. With all that
said, today is shaping up to be a fairly dry one.

As mentioned above, an upper level system will be the main focus
for convection tonight as the bulk of the precipitation can be
expected after sunset and later. A few storms could produce
locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds, but think this bulk of
storms will push through before sunrise. With plenty of moisture
around, some showers and a a rumble of thunder will be possible
during the day on Monday, but no impacts are expected with Highs
a little cooler than today with the extra cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through next Sunday)
Issued at 1129 AM CDT Sun May 5 2024

Tuesday through Wednesday Night is really the main focus for this
forecast period as strong to severe thunderstorms are anticipated.
Although things are somewhat unclear how they will play out in
exact timing and location, scattered storms will develop across
the area Tuesday afternoon. However, think the threat for anything
strong to potentially severe would come from whatever develops to
our northwest and makes it to Middle Tennessee Tuesday Evening and
Night. The biggest concern with these storms would be damaging
winds and localized flash flooding with any heavy rainfall.

Now how things evolve will be the ultimate question come Wednesday
morning as some leftover convection hangs around and upper level
forcing moves closer to the area. The best forcing however will
be well to the north leaving almost zonal winds aloft. So the
timing of things combined with the best instability and shear
Wednesday afternoon and evening will be the ultimate question.
Regardless, think this set up for Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday Night is the best set-up for strong to severe
thunderstorms that we`ve had in a month, so definitely something
to keep an eye on in the short term. At the very least, there`s a
damaging wind and flooding threat with a potential tornado threat
in the mix as well.

To top things off, although ensembles have very low probabilities
of any one location receiving greater than 4 inches during this 3
day timeframe, the ground is wet and any location that gets a
training set-up may have some issues with flooding. Luckily by
Thursday, this system pushes to the south and ushers in probably
our true last taste of spring On Friday just in time for Mother`s
Day Weekend, before the taste of summer returns and probably
remains. So, let`s enjoy it!

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Scattered showers and storms will likely affect the terminals off
and on over the forecast period. Visibilities will be reduced to
IFR/MVFR during pockets of heavy rain. In addition, cigs may
temporarily be reduced to MVFR. The rain chances should taper off
Monday evening for the remainder of the taf period. Winds will
generally be out of the S/SW around 5-10 kts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      81  67  85  69 /  70  40  60  70
Clarksville    79  66  83  67 /  80  40  60  60
Crossville     76  61  79  63 /  90  60  40  70
Columbia       82  66  84  68 /  60  30  60  60
Cookeville     76  64  80  65 /  90  50  60  70
Jamestown      76  62  80  63 /  90  70  50  70
Lawrenceburg   81  66  83  68 /  60  30  50  60
Murfreesboro   81  65  84  67 /  70  40  60  60
Waverly        80  67  83  66 /  70  40  70  60

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE.......Baggett
SHORT TERM...Hurley
LONG TERM....Hurley
AVIATION.....Reagan