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000
FXUS64 KOHX 100700
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
200 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Our latest wave of the week is wetting pavement across Middle TN at
forecast time this morning. Rains have become pretty light over the
last couple of hours and expectations are for these rains to push
out of the area by sunrise. Of course, this isn`t the end of this
week`s activity. A few changes have come since the last forecast
package went out and the headliner is the removal of the Slight Risk
today in southwest Middle TN. A Marginal Risk was maintained, but
after pouring over models this morning, while we could hear some
rumbles of thunder this afternoon, I don`t think this has anything
to do with convection this afternoon. It really could be better
applied to late this evening -- like after 9 pm. Rain chances
today and tonight come with a very dynamic system. The severe
chances well to our south are pretty legit. Then, as the upper
trough begins to lift northward late this afternoon, a surface low
will develop in southern Arkansas and move into West TN. CAMs
yesterday were showing a pretty decent drop in surface pressure
with this low, bringing with it pretty gusty wind this evening.
While they`ve backed off that thought slightly, CAMs across the
board show convection pulling northward into the mid-state late
this evening as the surface low pulls northward into KY. Now,
surface based instability is very low. Maybe even zero. But, we`re
able to get several hundred MUCAPE J/Kg. With the low passing
pretty close to us, shear values are good and the combination
could open the door for some gusty winds and maybe even some hail
with these storms. I don`t see this as being a widespread severe
threat or anything, but with the dynamic nature of this system,
Middle TN should remain weather aware tonight.

As the upper system and associated surface low pull away from the
mid-state tomorrow, showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue
to be possible. At this time, no severe weather is expected Thursday
as wind fields become very unfavorable very early in the day. The
bulk of this should just be showers. Rainfall totals between today
and tomorrow have also ticked down and I think that`s because of the
bulk of the heavy convection being shown south of Middle TN. We
should still average about an inch across the area through Thursday,
but at this point, we don`t have any flooding concerns and rivers
should behave.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 155 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

After Thursday, the forecast looks amazing. Clouds clear out Friday
and while it`ll be windy Friday, it`ll be dry and the start of what
looks to be a great weekend. Highs should be near 80 by Sunday with
plenty of sunshine. Next rain chances look to move into the region
by Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Conditions will vary from MVFR to VFR through the taf period as
episodes of showers and scattered thunderstorms impact the area.
Generally, patchy light showers are expected through the rest of
tonight. The main time period for a break in rainfall will be
14Z-18Z. Late in the taf period, more showers will form along with
scattered thunderstorms.

Generally light south to southeast winds will continue tonight.
Winds will increase through Wednesday with some gusts around 25KT
by 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      74  61  67  49 /  80 100  90  30
Clarksville    71  58  64  48 /  90  90  90  20
Crossville     70  57  67  45 /  50 100 100  50
Columbia       74  56  65  47 /  80  90  90  20
Cookeville     72  59  68  47 /  60 100  90  50
Jamestown      71  58  69  45 /  30 100 100  60
Lawrenceburg   74  58  65  48 /  80  90  90  20
Murfreesboro   75  58  67  48 /  70 100  90  30
Waverly        72  54  64  47 /  90  90  90  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Unger
LONG TERM....Unger
AVIATION.....13