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000
FXUS64 KOHX 170700
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
200 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Regional radar imagery showing as these early morning hours are
progressing scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms
progressing east northeastward across mid state region. Consensus
overall general agreement between the latest CAMs, North
American, and even global models showing showers and thunderstorms
continuing east northeastward progression as morning hours into
early afternoon hours progress with an upper level shortwave
approaching and then moving across mid state region as mid morning
through early afternoon hours progresses eventually ushering this
convective activity east of our area by mid afternoon hours
today. Although a cold front is positioned across the southern
plains in association with a surface low across the upper MS River
Valley Region, vertically stacked surface/upper level lows will
continue moving northeastward into central great lakes region,
with cold front to our west approaching but never passing through
our area, actually itself pushing northeastward and developing
stationary frontal characteristics by shortly after sunrise on
Thursday. As mentioned above, model overall general agreement in
progression movement, but some models slower or faster than others
in pushing convection out of mid state region by afternoon hours
today. Although an examination of several model sounding profiles
and associated derived indicies are now showing that strong to
severe convection chances will be limited at best, CAMs models
like the latest HRRR model solution do show some potential for
strong to even isolated severe convection across locations just
west of our across Cumberland Plateau Region late this morning
through early afternoon hours today, with modest instability,
shear, and PW profiles that could support stronger convection
potential. However, this looks to be the exception and not the
rule. Thus, can not rule out the development of an isolated
strong to even a severe thunderstorm or two across this region
during this time period today, but overall chances of any strong
to severe convection look marginal at best. Expecting decreasing
cloudiness from the west as day progresses, and with no true
frontal passage, afternoon high temperatures once again
approaching the upper 80s northwest portions, with a significant
temperature gradient as it comes to expected high temperatures for
today, with Nashville Metro Area in low to mid 80s, but portions
of Upper Cumberland Region only in the upper 60s, per preferred
lean toward GFSBC forecasted high temperature values.

Mid state will remain dry tonight through Thursday morning. Lows
tonight will continue to remain mild in low to mid 60s, upper 50s
Cumberland Plateau Region. Highs on Thursday across majority of
mid state region will be squarely in the low to mid 80s with
showers and thunderstorms once again moving in from the west as
afternoon hours progress.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday Night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 200 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

As a surface frontal system to our northwest with strong high
pressure influences behind it moves into central plains as
Thursday progresses, stage will be set for one more round of
numerous showers with isolated to scattered thunderstorms Thursday
night through at least Friday morning. Model soundings here
showing some potential of strong to severe convection across
northwestern portions of our area as Thursday night progresses.
Surface high pressure influences to our northwest will eventually
push any remaining surface frontal systems well to the south by
shortly after sunrise on Saturday with zonal flow aloft and
moisture mainly working to our west and south possibly ushering in
some isolated to scattered showers at times Saturday afternoon
through Sunday afternoon as a seasonally cool temperatures visit
the mid state region. Ridging influences aloft will finally take
hold as Sunday night through next Tuesday afternoon progresses
leading to dry conditions with seasonal temperatures prevailing.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

As a weak front approaches, isolated to scattered showers will
impact the area through the morning. While the probability is
low, an isolated thunderstorm may also develop through about 18Z.
Ceilings will also fall with MVFR cigs possible between 12Z and
18Z. Otherwise, southerly to southwesterly winds will be gusty
with gusts of 15 to 25 knots at times before finally tapering off
after sunset Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      83  62  86  62 /  60   0  40  90
Clarksville    85  62  85  59 /  20   0  50  90
Crossville     67  59  82  60 /  50   0  20  80
Columbia       80  62  85  61 /  60   0  30  90
Cookeville     72  60  82  61 /  60   0  20  80
Jamestown      71  59  82  59 /  60  10  20  80
Lawrenceburg   76  62  84  62 /  60   0  30  80
Murfreesboro   80  62  86  61 /  60   0  30  90
Waverly        86  63  86  57 /  20   0  40  90

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....Clements