356
FXUS66 KOTX 051844
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1144 AM PDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain will expand today across the PacNW today and tonight. As the
low slides east, conditions will remain cool and showery and
breezy. Warmer and drier weather will arrive late next week. Next
weekend has the potential to deliver our warmest temperatures of
the spring so far.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A forecast update has just been issued to limit the westward
extent of rain this afternoon and evening. Radar trends and
morning model runs suggest the band of rain will move about as far
west as Quincy, Mansfield and Republic around 3PM before changing
course and trekking east this evening and overnight. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: The rain band extending from Sandpoint to Spokane to Tri
Cities will pivot to the west this afternoon. That should bring
several hours of ceiling and visibility improvements to Spokane,
Coeur d`Alene, Pullman and Sandpoint. Radar trends and 12z model
runs limit the westward progress to about Moses Lake and Grand
Coulee. With drier downslope west winds in central WA, confidence
is high that Wenatchee, Chelan, and Omak will remain VFR with
little to no precipitation. Moses Lake and Ephrata will get some
light rain, but may experience enough drying from the west to keep
prevailing VFR until the rain band moves eastward this evening.
Spokane, Coeur d`Alene, Pullman, and Lewiston can expect ceilings
to lower as the band returns in the 00z-05z time frame before it
moves east and gusty winds help to break up low ceilings after
06z. /GKoch

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
Confidence in ceilings and visibility within the band of rain is
low. We are dealing with an axis of mid and low level moisture
convergence favoring localized ceiling reductions to 1500 ft or
less, but it is a relatively narrow band with a good deal of dry
being advected from the west. With a good deal of variability in
the MOS and HREF guidance, frequent amendments are anticipated to
keep up with the changing conditions. /GKoch

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https://www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        50  40  56  36  59  38 /  90 100  60  20  10   0
Coeur d`Alene  50  40  53  36  54  38 /  80  90  70  40  30  10
Pullman        44  38  52  34  52  36 /  70 100  60  40  20  10
Lewiston       54  44  60  41  60  41 /  50 100  60  40  30  10
Colville       51  39  59  33  60  35 / 100 100  60  40  20   0
Sandpoint      52  40  52  36  53  39 / 100 100  80  50  50  10
Kellogg        49  39  48  36  49  38 /  70 100  90  60  60  20
Moses Lake     57  38  63  39  64  37 /  70  30  20   0   0   0
Wenatchee      59  45  59  41  59  40 /  30  20  20   0   0   0
Omak           62  45  65  37  64  38 /  60  40  20  10   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$