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000
FXUS64 KOUN 151931
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
231 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 227 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

 - Severe storms likely late this evening and overnight, including a
low risk for tornadoes

 - Near critical to critical fire weather expected across northern
and western Oklahoma on Tuesday.

 - Gusty winds continue overnight through Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

In the near term, the dryline appears less aggressive this afternoon-
-most models confine sub 20 percent RH values to western Harper
county. That being said, we will see some wind driven elevated RFTIs
in northwest Oklahoma this afternoon where RHs fall below 45 percent.

In terms of severe weather tonight and fire weather tomorrow,
forecast remains on track though uncertainties in storm coverage
remain. This is one to pay close attention to observational
trends. Details below.

***Severe Storms Tonight*** Still looking at two rounds of storms
this evening and tonight. The first round would trigger off the
dryline late this afternoon (between 3pm and 7pm) in central to
north Texas as a shortwave moves over the region. CAMs show isolated
to scattered storms tracking eastward along the Red River (possibly
affecting south central Oklahoma late in the evening). CIN will be
an obstacle to overcome, especially as models seem to be biasing too
high on temperatures. Current thinking is that incoming moisture and
the aforementioned shortwave will help to overcome that cap, at
least initially. As storms move east into stronger CIN, they will
struggle to maintain. Instability and shear are plentiful to support
severe hail as the primary hazard; low level (0-1 km) SRH appears
marginal and more confined to the west; this combined with abundant
moisture will yield a low risk for tornadoes early (peaking around
00z) on with this cluster of storms.

The second round would be overnight as the Pacific front surges
eastward under the influence of the upper low. Coverage is very
uncertain. The environment appears largely supportive of initiating
a line of storms in western Oklahoma; however most CAMs show only a
few isolated storms (or no storms), perhaps increasing in coverage
to scattered storms when the front reaches I-35 well after midnight.
The low level jet will be quite strong with this second round,
yielding stronger low level shear and a low risk for tornadoes with
any storms that do develop.

***Fire Weather*** Incoming drier air (behind Monday night`s Pacific
front) combined with gusty winds will result in near critical to
critical RFTIs on Tuesday. This will be primarily wind driven across
northern Oklahoma, RH driven across western Oklahoma and western
north Texas, with the intersection of the two (and thus higher
RFTIs) in northwest Oklahoma. Northwest Oklahoma will also see ERCs
in the 75th to 85th percentile range (outside this area, ERCs should
remain at or below the 50th percentile). If we can get some rain in
northwest Oklahoma tonight, that would provide a mitigating effect,
but chances of any appreciable rainfall appear very low
(additionally, we will have a risk for isolated storms with
lightning late tonight).

Winds will approach advisory criteria across western Oklahoma
tonight and northern Oklahoma tomorrow afternoon, but confidence is
not high enough to warrant a wind advisory at this time.

Day

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 227 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

By Wednesday, the upper level flow becomes more or less zonal. A
cold front will arrive Thursday (models are showing timing
differences of 6-9 hours), bringing colder temperatures (by about 20
degrees) and a chance for storms. A few shortwaves moving through
the central plains will keep rain chances in the forecast through
the weekend and temperatures on the cool side. There is a low chance
of a few severe storms with the passage of the cold front; severe
chances go down thereafter.

Day

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

The stratus this morning is slowly eroding/lifting with ceilings
generally MVFR or VFR and that trend will continue, although MVFR
ceilings will likely linger in southeast Oklahoma. A few areas of
showers and elevated thunderstorms will move across the area,
although much of what is seen on radar right now will be virga.
There are a couple of waves of showers/storms expected with the
first developing in western north Texas and southwest Oklahoma
late this afternoon and moving east-northeast, and additional
showers/storms likely developing in a north-south line along a
cold front that will move across the area overnight. MVFR and
locally IFR ceilings will redevelop this evening as well.
Skies will clear from west to east on Tuesday morning with drier
air and gutsy southwesterly or westerly winds behind the cold
front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  62  80  55  82 /  50   0   0   0
Hobart OK         54  83  51  83 /  30   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  59  85  53  86 /  60   0   0   0
Gage OK           52  83  48  83 /  30   0   0   0
Ponca City OK     64  81  51  80 /  70  10   0   0
Durant OK         66  84  62  85 /  80  20   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ004-005-
     009-010.

TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...26