186
FXUS63 KPAH 302309
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
609 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A trend of above normal temperatures sets in, peaking
  Wednesday and Thursday, with highs into the upper 80s. For
  most locations, that`ll be just shy of records near 90 to
  begin the month of May.

- Daily rain chances resume Thursday. They`ll peak Friday and
  again late this weekend into early next week. Heavy rain will
  be the primary hazard from any storms.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 120 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

High pressure provides clear skies and helps draw in drier dew
points that bottom into the 50s overnight. As the high shifts
eastward, southerly return flow quickly reverses course for dew
points, returning them into the lower 60s along with our warmup.
Near record highs in the upper 80s are forecast Wednesday and
Thursday, and here is the record information for our climo sites
both days:

     May1      May2    Norm-Hi   Fcst-Hi Wed/Thu
PAH  90/1951   90/2012    75        87/89
EVV  90/1951   91/1959    73        83/87
CGI  87/2012   89/2012    74        86/87
POF  93/1901   91/1952    74        86/87
MDH  91/1901   91/1901    73        83/87

There may be a glancing blow/low pops for warm advection
showers for portions of the area late tonight-early tmrw, and
again tmrw pm/evening with diurnal destabilization. Otherwise,
it will largely be dry until broader/synoptic scale pops move in
from the west beginning Thursday. These pops will peak Friday
before diminishing early this weekend, mirroring their parent
system`s lift and spreading and ultimately diminishing in
similarly tracking west-to-east fashion. Heavy rain will be the
primary hazard as WPC paints a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall accompanying that system`s pass.

A relative early weekend pops pause is quickly followed by
continued daily chances Saturday night thru Monday. The parent
synoptic features of these chances remain north and west of our
area for their duration, so at this writing, it looks more like
your routine/daily storm chances with locally heavy rain hazard
vs anything widespread severe variety. There is no discernable
air mass change so the warm temp regime continues with mostly
80s for highs this weekend thru early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period. Mixing down of drier
air this afternoon should likely hinder much in the way of fog
development tonight despite near calm winds and mainly clear
skies. A very small chance for a shower/storm exists late
tonight into early morning near KMVN. Additional isolated
convection can`t be ruled out tomorrow afternoon and evening,
but chances are quite low. Winds will largely be out of the
southwest tomorrow aob 10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SP
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...SP