Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pittsburgh, PA

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FXUS61 KPBZ 271234
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
834 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A few light showers are expected this morning and late this evening
as a slow moving cold front crosses the region. Dry and
seasonable conditions are then expected for the remainder of the
work week. Rain chances return for the weekend and early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Lingering showers are possible this morning north of
  Pittsburgh, PA before 12pm. Light showers may develop along
  the ridges with upsloping after 6pm.

- Near to above average temperatures are expected today due to a
  stalled front.

------------------------------

8am Update:

Portions of the Ohio River Valley are experiencing a warm start
this Wednesday morning due to a stalled frontal boundary. Light
showers may develop north of Pittsburgh with lingering low-lvl
moisture and weak ascent. With deep southwesterly flow
throughout the day, delaying the cold front progression to
early tomorrow morning, near to above average temperatures are
expected. The higher terrain may experience a few light showers
between 6pm to 10pm due to upsloping as sfc winds shift west.
However, confidence remains low on this scenario.

Cold advection finally arrives tonight as temperatures dip
below freezing for the high terrain and northern/western half of
the forecast area. Clouds will begin to gradually clear
overnight as drier/cooler air infiltrates the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Dry weather continues Thursday and Friday.
- Near-seasonable temperatures are expected.

------------------------------------------------------------------

Building high pressure will keep dry conditions in the forecast
Thursday and Friday with mostly sunny skies. Deep southern
stream troughing will aid development of a coastal low across
the Carolinas along the lingering frontal boundary, eventually
lifting northwards up the coast. However, moisture associated
with that system should stay well to our east. The main impact
for our area will be to maintain northwesterly flow across the
area, keeping daily temperatures near-average.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- A crossing shortwave returns rain chances early this weekend.
- Additional rain chances are expected with low pressure early
  next week.
- Above-average temperatures are expected.

----------------------------------------------------------------

The aforementioned trough will shift east into the weekend as a
flattening ridge takes its place across the eastern US.
Ensemble probabilities remain high for rainfall to return on
Saturday as a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes.
Uncertainty increases for Easter Sunday, though drier
conditions look more favorable than not at the moment. Rain
chances then increase again early next week as low pressure
lifts out of the central US and into the Great Lakes region.

Probabilities for above-normal temperatures through the long
term are high.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The forecast period will begin with MVFR/IFR cigs within a
warm, moist air mass early this morning. With diurnal heating
and a stalled frontal boundary, VFR conditions will likely
develop late morning to early afternoon. Winds will shift
gradually from south/southwest to west as the cold front slowly
advances this afternoon.

Cigs have the chance to drop late tonight due to remnant
moisture between the surface and 3kft and cold advection.
Therefore, MVFR cigs were added near the end of the TAF period
to a number of sites.

.Outlook...
VFR then returns with high confidence for Thursday and Friday
under high pressure. The next chance for restrictions may come
Saturday with a passing wave.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Hefferan/Rackley
NEAR TERM...Hefferan/Rackley
SHORT TERM...Rackley
LONG TERM...Rackley
AVIATION...22/Hefferan


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