Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ
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075 FXUS65 KPSR 032235 AFDPSR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 335 PM MST Fri May 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Slightly above normal temperatures are expected through tomorrow, with afternoon highs peaking in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. A dry weather system will traverse the Intermountain West this weekend leading to widespread breezy to windy conditions Saturday evening and Sunday, as well as cooler temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Dry weather will persist through next week, and temperatures are expected to rebound into the low 90s by early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Dry, warm weather continues across the region today as quasi-zonal flow persists across the southwestern CONUS. Afternoon visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies persisting across the CWA as dry southwesterly flow aloft continues. Through tomorrow, 500 mb heights will remain consistent around 572-575 dm for our area and thus high temperatures tomorrow will be similar to today`s in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. Light winds today will give way to increasingly stronger winds starting tomorrow in response to an approaching weather system that will impact the region this weekend. The aforementioned weather system is currently seen on satellite WV imagery off the Pacific Northwest coast. Guidance show this closed low diving southward along the West Coast through the start of the weekend before progressing inland across the Great Basin Sunday. Though the greatest negative height anomalies will remain north of our area, decreasing heights and increasing gradients will promote strong winds and cooler temperatures as we head through the weekend. Strong winds will pick up across southeast California starting tomorrow afternoon/evening, particularly across Imperial County and Joshua Tree National Park where gusts are likely (>80%) to exceed 40 mph at times. Wind Advisories are in effect for these areas and the Wind Advisory for much of Imperial County is now in effect through Sunday evening. Sunday, strong winds will spread across Arizona as the closed low moves inland across the Great Basin while the associated dry cold front moves through the region. Wind gusts are likely (>70%) to climb upwards of 30-40 mph across much of the forecast area, while some areas may see gusts in excess of 40 mph at times, particularly areas across Imperial County and southern Gila County. Additional Wind Advisories may be needed for some areas as we get closer. The strong winds this weekend may lead to the development of dust channels across dust prone areas, which could reduce visibilities and make travel hazardous. Outside of the strong winds, temperatures will fall below normal Sunday, especially across southeast California and southwest Arizona where well below normal highs are only forecast to top out in the upper 70s to low 80s with the passage of the cold front. Across south-central Arizona, temperatures won`t see as significant of a drop with lower desert highs Sunday in the mid to upper 80s. The closed low will eject to the northeast for the start of the new workweek with lighter winds prevailing across the region. Global ensembles then favor longwave troughing persisting across the western CONUS through much of next week. Temperatures will gradually warm back up near to slightly above normal with daily afternoon highs across lower elevation areas climbing into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION...Updated at 1730Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT: No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Wind pattern will continue to exhibit diurnal tendencies with a period of southerly winds through early this afternoon before fully transitioning out of the west. Speeds will generally remain under 10 kts, although a few occasional gusts in the mid-teens cannot be ruled during the afternoon and early evening hours. Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH: No aviation weather concerns under clear skies are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally be southerly through the period at BLH aob 10 kts, while southeasterly winds at IPL are expected to become westerly during the evening hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and dry weather will persist into this weekend, with light and diurnal winds and typical afternoon breeziness today. Afternoon highs will remain slightly above normal through tomorrow in the low to mid 90s across the lower deserts. Gusty winds will begin to increase across the region in response to an approaching weather system starting Saturday afternoon/evening, particularly across parts of southeast California where gusts are expected to exceed 40 mph at times. Strong winds increase across Arizona heading into Sunday afternoon with gusts across south-central and southwest Arizona climbing upwards of 30-40 mph and some gusts potentially exceeding 40 mph, particularly across southern Gila County. The strong winds and dry conditions will lead to elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions this weekend. Min RHs through the weekend will be around 10-20%, while overnight Max RHs will be around 30-60% for most areas. && .PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AZ...None. CA...Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 9 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ560. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ563>567. Wind Advisory from 3 PM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ562. && $$ DISCUSSION...Smith AVIATION...Lojero/Kuhlman FIRE WEATHER...Smith