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000
FXUS61 KRLX 231430
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
Issued by National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1030 AM EDT Tue Apr 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and breezy today ahead of a cold front. Light rain tonight
into early Wednesday. Dry and warming for the rest of the work
week. Chance for weekend showers and perhaps thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1030 AM Tuesday...

Dry conditions will continue today before a cold front
swings through overnight bringing generally light rain to the
region. Total rainfall amounts will be on the lighter side,
generally a tenth or two with some locally higher amounts in
orographic forcing.

Breezy southwesterly winds this afternoon and into early
evening can be expected ahead the mentioned front, however,
most locations should see a relatively brief period of lighter
winds this evening with decoupling prior to FROPA

Afternoon min RH values in the lower 20s, low 10hr fuel
moisture values, and gusts up to 25mph has prompted the issuance
of a fire danger statement for today after coordination with
land management agencies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 241 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Cold front exits east Wednesday morning.
* Dry conditions return behind the front later on Wednesday.
* Frost possible Thursday morning.

A cold front will push east of the eastern mountains early
Wednesday. However, another upper level shortwave pushes a
reinforcement front, bringing much colder and drier airmass to
the area. This later feature will put an end to the lingering
showers over the mountains by Wednesday evening.

Despite of dry air moving in, moisture remains trap beneath the
inversion, anticipating afternoon cu development about 4-5kft
persisting through Wednesday afternoon. Then, skies will
gradually clear up Wednesday evening.

Highs remain sightly below normal for Wednesday afternoon, generally
in the low to mid 60s lowlands, ranging into the upper 40s higher
elevations. With cold and dry air in place, low temperatures
Wednesday night may drop into the lower 30s across northern mid Ohio
valley and northern WV.

The combination of chilly temperatures and clearing skies, will
allow for areas of frost to develop late Wednesday night into early
Thursday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 241 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:

* Dry with warming trend Thursday and Friday
* Next system arrives late Friday into the weekend.
* Becoming hot during the weekend possibly reaching the lower 80s.

Strong surface high pressure builds over the Great Lakes, extending
south into the OH valley and WV Thursday. This high will provide dry
weather conditions with a warming trend through the end of the week.

Precipitation returns Friday and Friday night as a warm front
develops across the south, establishing southwest flow and moisture
advection. Showers continues Saturday as the warm front lifts north
across the area. While the area remains on the warm sector, moisture
and instability builds mainly west of the area, while a series of
shortwaves cross aloft. These two features will act to support the
potential for thunderstorms on Saturday.

A warming trend continues, becoming hot over the weekend, with
lowland temperatures reaching the 80s on Saturday, and the mid 80s
on Sunday.

Still uncertain how the weather will evolve after the weekend with
as upper level ridge axis exiting east of the area, while upper level
disturbances approach from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 520 AM Tuesday...

Just FEW-SCT cirrus to contend with for much of the daylight hours
today as southwesterly flow increases ahead of cold frontal passage
light. Light rain and MVFR ceilings this evening and overnight with
activity along the cold front - precipitation tapers off from west
to east through Wednesday morning.

Winds generally southwesterly, 5-12KTs with gusts 15-20KTs in the
afternoon and evening hours..

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in rain showers and stratus early
Wednesday morning, especially near the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...