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000
FXUS61 KRLX 220011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
811 PM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and dry tonight, with frost likely Monday morning. then
slowly warming through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that brings
wet weather back to the area Tuesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 810 PM Sunday...

Adjusted valley lows slightly downward for much of the area
toward lower local guidance. As a result, interior southeast
Ohio could see temperatures near or even just below the freezing
mark by dawn Monday, especially in the normally colder spots.
The forecast is otherwise on track as high pressure gradually
builds into the area to maintain the cool, dry weather to start
the new work week.

As of 1250 PM Sunday...

Key Point:

 * Frost Advisory in place for areas outside of the WV mountains
   late tonight into Monday morning.

At the time of writing, two layers of clouds continue to mask
the Central Appalachians, maintaining a chillier than normal
afternoon. The first area of mid to upper level clouds
blanketing the southern coalfields and up the spine of the
Appalachians will gradually push off into the Mid-Atlantic in
association with a southern stream disturbance. The other area
of persnickety clouds has dropped down from the northwest as a
layer of stratocumulus, which may provide brief stints of
sunshine today, before clearing out altogether later this
evening into the overnight hours.

High pressure currently parked over the Central Plains will nose
into the eastern half of the country throughout the forecast
period, supplying dry weather to round out the weekend and open
up the work week. The surface high will be established overhead
on Monday, and should yield slightly warmer temperatures in
comparison to today`s anticipated highs.

Main item of note within this forecast period will be the
clearing skies overnight that will lead to sufficient
radiational cooling Monday morning. Overnight lows drift down
into the low to mid 30s during the predawn hours, which may
irritate sensitive vegetation. Joined neighboring offices with
a Frost Advisory for all counties currently within the growing
season for late tonight into Monday morning. Temperatures
quickly rise after daybreak and should reach the upper 50s to
low 60s across the lowlands and into the 40s for the higher
terrain by the peak of the afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

Key Points:
* Patchy frost possible early Tuesday morning.
* Cold front brings rain late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Monday night will be cool and quiet, with low temperatures likely to
fall into the 30s to low 40s. Some areas of patchy frost could
develop late Monday night into early Tuesday morning and impact
sensitive vegetation that is unprotected.

Dry conditions are expected to linger much of Tuesday, though cloud
cover gradually increases as high pressure recedes and a cold front
approaches from the west. Warm air advection preceding the front
should allow daytime temperatures to rise into the mid 60s to
low 70s in the lowlands and mid 50s to upper 60s in the
mountains. Amid warm and breezy conditions, relative humidity is
likely to descend into the 20-30% range during the afternoon.

Precipitation spreads into the area late Tuesday and then continues
as the cold front crosses the CWA overnight. Shower activity
should diminish from west to east following the departure of
the front Wednesday morning, with drier conditions returning
during the latter half of the day. The arrival of colder air in
the wake of the front should keep temperatures cooler than
normal on Wednesday, with highs projected to be in the upper 50s
to 60s in the lowlands and upper 40s to low 60s in the
mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 205 PM Sunday...

Key Points:
* High pressure brings quiet weather through Thursday night.
* Unsettled conditions return as a system approaches late week into
  the weekend.

High pressure builds into the area from the north Wednesday night,
then maintains control over the region through Thursday night.

A low pressure system lifts out of the Central Plains late this
week and then migrates across the Great Lakes during the
weekend. Chances for rain showers and thunderstorms will
gradually increase as high pressure erodes and the system lifts
a warm front across the CWA late Friday into Saturday. Unsettled
weather then remains possible through the weekend while
moisture and warm air continue feeding into the area.

Temperatures are expected to start out on the cooler side, with a
frosty morning possible Thursday. A warming trend takes hold late
week through the weekend, with highs potentially breaking into the
80s in the lowlands by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 810 PM Sunday...

A scattered to broken stratocumulus cloud deck 4-6kft will
continue breaking up from west to east tonight, disappearing
lastly in the mountains overnight. A few cumulus may form Monday
afternoon at about the same height.

A bit of a breeze at least just off the deck should be enough
to preclude all but a bit of steam fog in some of the deeper
river valleys overnight into early Sunday morning. This is not
expected to impact any of the terminals.

Otherwise high pressure will maintain VFR conditions tonight
through Monday, as it gradually builds into the area from the
west.

Diminishing northwest surface flow this evening may become light
and variable to calm overnight, before becoming light west to
northwest on Monday. Light north to northwest flow aloft tonight
will become light west to northwest on Monday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Guidance has backed off from an earlier
suggestion of fog at Elkins during the predawn hours Monday
morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 04/22/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions in rain showers and stratus are possible early
Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>034-039-040.
OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/MEK/JLB
NEAR TERM...TRM/MEK
SHORT TERM...JLB
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...TRM