Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 270550
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
150 AM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Two systems will be impacting our area today. The main one will
be low pressure moving from Georgia to the Carolina coastline
through Thursday morning. This will bring better rain chances
east of the Blue Ridge today into tonight. A front moving in
from the west will slowly push the coastal system east Thursday.
High pressure builds from the lower Mississippi Valley into the
Gulf Coast states Thursday afternoon into Friday.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Better rain chances east of the Blue Ridge today as low
pressure works across the southeast U.S.

The models are becoming consistent enough to paint a wetter
picture across our piedmont of VA/NC today with less coverage
west.

Low pressure over southeast Georgia will slowly track
north/northeast into the Carolinas through tonight. Deeper
moisture convergence and lift over a warm front ahead of the low
will bring rainfall across the piedmont this morning into the
afternoon. While rain is possible in the mountains, kept pops in
the chance to low chance range, and overall mainly dry in
WV/far SW VA.

The 5h pattern shows a closed low over the upper MS Valley and
south to north flow which will keep the system slow moving.

Today will be cloudy though some breaks this afternoon are
likely in the mountains. Temperatures will likely be milder in
the our WV/SW VA mountains than in the piedmont, with 50s east
to lower 60s southwest.

Confidence is lower on low temperatures tonight as models have
some colder air tracking in by dawn Thursday with mid to upper
30s in the mountains to upper 40s in southside VA/NC piedmont.
If clouds linger and low pressure is slower, lows could be
higher. As the low moves into eastern NC late tonight and
support aloft tracks across central NC, some westward drift in
the rain is possible so keeping slight chance pops as far west
as WV/VA border.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for gusty winds during Thursday and Friday.

2) Drier weather is expected for Thursday night and Friday.

It will take until Thursday for the moisture to exit the
Piedmont. Drier air should arrive west of the Blue Ridge on
Thursday, and winds will increase from the northwest.
Eventually, the cold front should depart offshore to allow the
Piedmont to become dry by Thursday evening. Northwest winds will
continue to gust through Thursday night and Friday, and some
gusts could approach advisory criteria along the higher
elevations. The wet soil combined with these wind gusts may
cause a few downed trees and power lines. Winds should
eventually fade by Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for warmer weather this weekend.

2) Chances of showers will increase into early next week.

High pressure will reside across the Southeast, while a broad upper
level ridge builds across the southern Plains. A baroclinic zone
will develop across the northern Plains. While warmer air should
boost temperatures above normal this weekend, a gradually increasing
chance of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm exists to the northwest
as this baroclinic zone creeps closer to central West Virginia.
Cloud cover and rain chances will keep climbing by Monday as the
baroclinic zone becomes a warm front in response to a developing low
pressure system in the central Plains. The cold front from this
system should reach the Appalachian Mountains by Tuesday to produce
the highest odds for rainfall in this forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 135 AM EDT Wednesday...

Poor flying conditions will be prevalent for most of this period
as low pressure works from Georgia into the Carolinas, east of
the mountains Rainfall seems a good bet from ROA east to
LYH/DAN with some light rains further west this morning, but
looking less as we head through the day.

Ceilings/vsbys will improve to VFR at BLF/LWB this afternoon,
but could drop again to MVFR after 0z/Thu.

Winds will generally be light from the east/northeast, except
turning west/northwest this afternoon/evening in WV.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR remains into Thursday morning then cigs/vsbys should
improve to VFR by Thu afternoon.

Gusty northwest winds arrive Thu night into Friday but mainly
VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs possible at BLF.

A front may drop down from the north Saturday-Sunday with
scattered showers, but overall appears mainly VFR.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...DS/WP


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