406
FXUS63 KSGF 021907
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to expand over the
  area this afternoon and shift east across the forecast area
  into this evening.

- The stronger storms will be capable of hail to the size of
  quarters and up to 60 mph winds...with heavy rain.

- Unsettled weather will persist through much of the 7 day
  forecast with the next round of showers and thunderstorms late
  Friday night into Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show an upper level low pressure system
located along the Montana / Saskatchewan border with an
associated trough axis becoming negatively tilted over the
northern plains. Broad southwesterly flow aloft was occurring on
the southern side of this trough from the southwest U.S. into
the CWA. A mesoscale convective vort(MCV) was lifting northeast
into the CWA out of northeast Oklahoma, while a surface front
was located over eastern Kansas shifting eastward. Surface based
CAPE values have risen into the 1000-2000 j/kg range and with
the front and MCV moving into the area, convection over the past
hour has increased in intensity and coverage, generally west of
U.S. 65.

This afternoon and tonight: Thunderstorm coverage will continue
to increase ahead of the surface front. The front will be slow
to push eastward through the area with the front nearly parallel
with the upper level flow. The MCV will continue to lift
northeast into the southwest corner of Missouri as well.
Thunderstorm coverage will gradually shift east across the area
through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening hours.
Some of the stronger storms will have the potential of some
small hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph in
addition to heavy rainfall. We are seeing some rotation in the
storms in the southwest corner of MO with the circulation around
the MCV and have had a confirmed small tornado already reported.
Soe we can`t rule out an isolated small tornado or two. Some
localized rainfall totals of an inch to inch and a half will be
possible in regions where multiple storms move across the same
locations, otherwise we are looking at a broad area of a quarter
to half inch of rain. The rain should end from west to east
later tonight with the front pushing to the east of the area.

Friday: This looks like the pick day of the 7 day forecast if
you are looking for generally dry conditions. Outside of a
lingering shower in the morning, it should generally be dry with
highs in the mid to upper 70s.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

Friday night - Saturday: An upper level wave will track
northeast out of the northern plains and into the upper
Mississippi valley on Friday night. A surface front will begin
to track east into the western portion of the CWA and we should
see showers and thunderstorms start to push into the area.
Rainfall will become more widespread over the area during the
day on Saturday.


Sunday: Another shortwave embedded within the southwesterly flow
aloft will bring additional shower and thunderstorm activity to
the area on Sunday. The better instability looks to be south of
the area and we are not expecting any severe storms with this
activity at this time.

Monday - Tuesday: A deeper trough with a strong upper jet will
begin to shift into the the plains on Monday and begin to lift
negatively tilted on Monday night into Tuesday. This system will
have better dynamics and instability for the potential of some
severe storms which the Colorado State, CIPS and SPC are already
supporting in their day 5-6 outlooks.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu May 2 2024

For the 18z TAFS, scattered light showers were expanding over
the southwest quadrant of MO in advance of a remnant MCV. Some
stronger convection was beginning to develop along the frontal
boundary over southeast Kansas. Convection should continue to
increase over western MO and southeast Kansas early this
afternoon with the slow approach of the cold front to the east
and the MCV to the northeast. Most of the convection will occur
from the onset of the 18z TAFS through around 03-04z. Expect to
see some MVFR within the areas of convection and some IFR with
the stronger storms. Behind the front, some scattered showers
will remain possible, but we should become predominantly IFR
through the remainder of the night, with improving conditions on
Friday morning.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg