542
FXUS63 KSGF 281911
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
211 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significant flooding continues over parts of west central
  Missouri and southeast Kansas from earlier heavy rain.

- Conditional risk of severe storms this afternoon and evening
  with damaging wind gusts the main risk. Flood watch has been
  extended until 10 pm.

- The unsettled pattern continues with additional storm chances
  mid to late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Water vapor imagery
and upper level analysis show upper low circulation over
southern SD into northern NE with trough axis becoming
negatively tilted. Southwest flow continues over the area
southeast of the low. Surface low was located over eastern NE
with the surface front extending south of the low into south
central KS and western OK. Atmosphere was really worked over
from last night and this mornings MCS. Low clouds were finally
starting to erode, but surface temperatures were still in the
mid 60s with dew points in the upper 50s to low 60s. Very little
to no instability over the area early this afternoon.  Yet...

Thunderstorm chances this afternoon and tonight: CAMS remain
VERY bullish with redevelopment this afternoon, especially the
HRRR. We have backed off on severity from earlier in the
morning, but hard to ignore all the models wanting to redevelop
something. Convection is expected to redevelop over eastern
Oklahoma ahead of the front and spread northeast into western
Missouri and then advancing eastward across the remainder of the
area during the evening into the early part of the overnight
hours. If some stronger storms do develop, the main risk would
be with damaging straight line winds and a lower risk of large
hail. We have removed the tornado risk from the HWO at this
time. Heavy rain will continue to be possible with the
redeveloping convection and we have extended the flood watch
through 10 pm. Significant flooding continues over the northwest
portion of the CWA where 7 to 10 inches of rain has occurred
over the last several days. Several rivers are in major flood
stage over west central Missouri. Luckily the heaviest rainfall
will occur east of there with any redevelopment tonight. There
are some areas east of an Osage Beach to Neosho line that have
1-2 additional inches of rainfall tonight.



&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

The upper wave should push east of the area on Monday and we
should have generally dry conditions through Tuesday.

Rain should exit out of the far eastern CWA on Monday morning
with clearing during the day. Temperatures should heat up into
the 80s on Tuesday. An upper wave will lift from the northern
plains into the upper Mississippi valley with a surface front
approaching from the northwest. It may be enough for some rain
chances Tuesday night into Wednesday.

The main upper trough will approach the area from the west
Wednesday night into the later part of the week with shower and
thunderstorm chances increasing over the area. The main system
should move through late Friday into Friday night with clearing
and cooler conditions for the upcoming weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

For the 18z TAFS, despite the light rain and low clouds over the
area from the MCS remnants, CAMS continue to redevelop
convection by mid afternoon and continue through the evening as
it pushes east across the area. Some MVFR and IFR will be
possible through the night with clearing as we get into Monday
morning. Gusty winds through the remainder of the afternoon
should diminish this evening and become light behind the frontal
boundary overnight.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ073-097-101.
MO...Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for MOZ055-056-
     066>069-077>081-088>096-101>105.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg