Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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892 FXUS64 KSHV 130801 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 301 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 A break in the active weather is anticipated this morning, before shower and thunderstorm coverage increases again into the afternoon hours. The boundary that will assist in atmosphere recovery for this afternoon severe weather has hit a snag, and likely won`t make it as far north as previously anticipated. In turn, the best severe environment looks to remain to the south as well. The SPC has introduced a hail and wind driven Enhanced Risk that partially clips most of our southern zones, with the slight risk being slightly pulled back from the north. Even with these changes, the overall thinking remains the same today. Once the trough begins to move east, thunderstorms will expand in coverage along the boundary into the afternoon and evening hours. Damaging winds and large hail still remain the main threats for us, with flash flooding being the secondary threat given heavy rainfall rates. Based on rainfall amounts on Sunday, we went ahead and trimmed back the existing flood watch to only cover the wettest areas. Here, an additional 1-3 inches of rain are possible through Tuesday morning, with locally heavier amounts certainly possible. /44/ && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through Monday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 After a brief two day drying period, the next round of weather will begin working into the region by Thursday morning. Low level moisture will greatly increase ahead of this trough, which will allow for these showers and thunderstorms to also be very efficient rain producers. Given forecast rain amounts, another Flood Watch will likely be considered into the weekend, as another 1-3 inches of rainfall are possible in these already saturated areas. Severe weather also remains to be seen, as there are still plenty of question marks about instability return into the afternoon hours Thursday. /44/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 117 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024 For the 13/06z TAFS....Low cigs have prevailed across the region, resulting in IFR/LIFR flight categories. There is also some left over convection over the area, but should only affect KMLU and KLFK overnight. This convection should diminish before sunset. Fog is likely to develop over the area overnight, but should diminish just after sunrise. Low cigs will keep reduced flight categories over the region through a good portion of the period, with some clearing at KTYR/KGGG/KTXK by the end. Otherwise, expect additional convection to develop during the afternoon hours over all the TAF sites. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 82 65 85 62 / 40 30 0 0 MLU 83 65 85 62 / 50 40 10 0 DEQ 78 59 81 56 / 50 30 10 0 TXK 81 64 83 59 / 40 30 0 0 ELD 80 62 82 59 / 40 30 10 0 TYR 81 64 84 61 / 40 20 0 0 GGG 82 64 84 61 / 40 20 0 0 LFK 84 64 86 61 / 50 20 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for LAZ017-018-020-022. OK...None. TX...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for TXZ149-152-153-165>167. && $$ SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....44 AVIATION...20