Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FGUS74 KSHV 160230
ESFSHV
162029-


Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
830 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2024


...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) long range
probabilistic outlook for the Sabine River basin of East Texas...


In the table below...the 90 through 10 percent columns indicate the
chance the river could rise above the listed stage levels during
the next 90 days. For example...the Sabine River near Mineola
Texas flood stage is 14 feet. There is a 50 percent chance the
Sabine River will rise above 18.2 feet during the next 90 days.


        Chance of exceeding stages at specific locations
        valid for February 14, 2024 through May 14, 2024


     Location      FS  90%  80%  70%  60%  50%  40%  30%  20%  10%
------------------ --  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---

Lake Fork Creek
 Quitman 4S        16 15.6 16.7 16.8 18.3 18.7 18.7 18.9 20.1 21.6
Sabine River
 Mineola 4S        14 15.9 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.2 18.6 18.8 19.4 20.0
 Gladewater 3WSW   26 22.7 28.8 32.5 33.8 34.1 35.2 36.2 37.2 38.5
 Longview          25 19.4 24.4 26.4 28.5 29.2 32.0 33.5 34.0 35.8
 Beckville 8NE     26 23.4 23.4 24.6 25.9 27.5 28.4 29.2 30.4 31.5
 Logansport        28 26.9 27.4 31.0 31.6 32.5 33.9 35.0 36.2 37.1
Big Sandy Creek
 Big Sandy 4NE     17 10.7 12.1 12.6 13.4 14.1 14.6 15.9 16.4 18.8
Rabbit Creek
 Kilgore           10  8.9 11.6 12.0 12.2 12.6 12.7 13.1 14.0 17.3


 Location     90%   80%   70%   60%   50%   40%   30%   20%   10%
 ----------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
Lk Cherokee  280.7 280.7 280.7 280.7 280.7 280.7 281.0 281.3 281.7
Lk Martin    306.1 306.3 306.3 306.4 306.4 306.7 306.9 307.5 307.8
Lk Murvaul   266.2 266.2 266.2 266.3 266.8 267.1 267.3 267.6 268.4

This long range probabilistic outlook uses probabilities computed
using multiple scenarios from 60 years of historical climatological
and stream flow data.  These probabilities also account for the
current river flows and soil moisture conditions.  By providing the
complete range of probabilistic numbers...the level of risk
associated with long range planning decisions can be determined.

Additional supportive data and explanations are available on the
internet at this URL:
https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=shv (internet address
URL is all lower case).

Long range probabilistic outlooks are issued during the third
Thursday of every month.

$$

09


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