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000
FXUS64 KSJT 160744
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
244 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

A few light showers have developed across the extreme eastern
portions of the area, ahead of the dryline now passing through
San Angelo and Abilene. These showers will exit east pretty
quickly after sunrise and will confine any POPs to a small part of
the area. Otherwise, drier conditions and a west wind will be the
main forecast for the day. Downslope winds will boost
temperatures across the area, especially across the Northwest Hill
Country where a west wind usually has a bigger effect on
temperatures.

Dryline dissipates and moisture will make some return overnight as
winds begin to switch back to the southwest or south by morning.
Overnight lows will be cooler than this morning but still mild in
the 50s and 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Expect mainly hot and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday due to
850 MB thermal ridge in the area. a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country
Thursday afternoon and evening. There will be moderate/strong
instability and good deep layer shear(0-6KM) so an isolated severe
storm or two is possible. The combination of a frontal boundary in
the area, overrunning and upper level disturbances moving by will
bring numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms to much of
our area this weekend, with a medium to high chances of rain(50 to
90 percent) Saturday and Saturday night. The best chance for
rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches will be across the Big Country,
Heartland and Northwest Hill Country. Expect mainly dry weather by
early next week. Expect much cooler temperatures this weekend with
highs in the 60s and 70s and then warming back up early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Low clouds with MVFR cigs have crept back west across the eastern
terminals early this morning, and may make a run as far west at
KSOA and KSJT before shifting back to the east after sunrise. Will
watch area radars to see if a few showers can get going near KBBD
towards sunrise as a cold front moves in from the west. Otherwise,
passage of the front will bring clear out the low clouds and
bring gusty west and northwest winds to the area for much of the
day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  58  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  89  58  93  64 /   0   0  10  10
Junction    93  63  97  67 /  10   0  10  10
Brownwood   87  59  90  64 /  10   0  10  10
Sweetwater  87  58  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       87  60  91  67 /   0   0  10  10
Brady       89  63  91  66 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...07