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000
FXUS64 KSJT 150718
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
218 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

...Severe storms possible Monday afternoon and Monday night...

Upper low will be moving into Colorado Sunday afternoon, with
strong southwest flow across West Central Texas. A dryline will be
situated Monday afternoon across the Eastern Permian Basin, with
isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off it in the
afternoon, moving east into West Central Texas (mainly 4 PM and
later) and continuing into the evening hours in West Central
Texas. There may be second batch of storms develop towards
midnight, as the surface trough moves through, bringing southwest
to west winds. With GFS MUCAPES up to 2000 J/KG and 0-6 bulk
shears of 50-60 KTS severe storms possible, with large hail and
damaging winds possible late afternoon and evening. An isolated
tornado possible, mainly in the Big Country. SPC has slight risk
of severe storms from the Concho Valley into the Big Country,
with an enhanced risk in Haskell and Throckmorton counties.

Warm conditions otherwise continue Monday with south winds
bringing highs into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Mild tonight
with lows in the mid 60s, and slightly cooler Monday night with
lows ranging from the mid 50s to mid 60s (cooler in western
zones).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

The upper low will lift northeast of the area on Tuesday, with a
Pacific cold front moving through during the day. The front will
bring breezy west winds and drier air into the region, with
afternoon highs mainly in the upper 80s. Dry and unseasonably warm
weather is expected Wednesday and Thursday, as zonal flow aloft
develops across the Southern Plains. A strong 850 MB thermal ridge
will develop, resulting in above normal temperatures both days,
with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s.

A change in the weather pattern is expected late next week into
the weekend, with cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation
chances. A cold front is forecast to move through the area Thursday
night into Friday, with an overrunning situation developing into
the weekend. This pattern will support a low to medium chance for
showers and thunderstorms from Friday through next weekend, along
with considerably cooler temperatures. Forecast highs for Saturday
are mainly in the 70s, with highs Sunday in the 60s and overnight
lows in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 217 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Expect stratus to spread north across the southern terminals
during the next few hours and MVFR ceilings lasting until early
Monday afternoon. A few hours of MVFR are possible at KSJT
terminal Tuesday morning. Expect VFR conditions Tuesday afternoon
and evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible
along and north of I-20 Monday evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     59  88  58  89 /  50   0   0   0
San Angelo  60  89  58  91 /  40   0   0   0
Junction    66  93  62  96 /  20   0   0  10
Brownwood   64  87  57  87 /  50   0   0   0
Sweetwater  58  87  57  88 /  40   0   0   0
Ozona       59  87  60  89 /  30   0   0   0
Brady       67  88  63  89 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...21