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000
FXUS64 KSJT 130749
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
249 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 124 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Warm and windy conditions will continue through today and into
tonight as high pressure continues to build across West Central
Texas and the pressure gradient remains tightened over the area.
Southerly winds will range from 15 to 25 mph today with gusts as
high as 35 mph at times today, which will gradually diminish
after sunset this evening. High temperatures today are expected to
reach into the mid 80s to near 90, and overnight lows are expected
to say in the upper 50s to lower 60s as cloud cover begins to
increase across the area overnight tonight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Expect very warm and dry weather this weekend due to low level
southwest flow and warming 850 MB temperatures. Highs will be in
the in the upper 80s to near 95 on Sunday. The weather gets more
active early next week with severe weather possible late Monday
afternoon and night. A strong upper level disturbance, with a
negative tilt/strong mid level jet streak, will rotate out to the
northeast across the Southern and Central Plains Monday afternoon
through Tuesday. At the surface, will see a spring like pattern
across the Southern Plains 12Z Monday with southerly flow(wind
gusts 35 to 40 mph Monday evening) across our area to the east of
a dryline over west Texas. The combination of moderate
instability, surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s and dryline
moving east will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
developing during the late afternoon and evening, as a Pacific
cold front overtakes dryline and upper level dynamics increase. A
few storms may be severe with strong vertical wind shear in the
area. The SPC Day 3 outlook for Monday has a slight risk for much
of west central Texas and an enhanced risk over the northern 1/3
of the Big Country with a few supercells possible during initial
development and then convection developing into a line of storms
during Monday evening and overnight. The main hazards will be very
large hail, damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Going with a
low to medium chance of rain.

For Tuesday, the storm system exits the area with breezy conditions
and highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Looks like very warm days
Wednesday and Thursday as 850 MB thermal ridge will be over our
area. Highs will be in the mid 80s to mid 90s. The weather is
more unsettled by Thursday and Friday as cold front moves south
Thursday night with a chance of showers and a few thunderstorms
Thursday night and Friday. Also, cooler temperatures Friday with
highs in the mid 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

VFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours, with some gusty
winds lingering through this evening as a strong low-level jet
keeps winds elevated across much of West Texas Texas. South to
southeasterly winds will range from 15 to 20 kts with gusts as
high as 30 kts through this afternoon. After sunset, gusts will
diminish for across most terminals by 03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     88  61  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo  88  60  93  65 /   0   0   0   0
Junction    87  61  93  64 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   84  59  88  63 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  87  62  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       83  59  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       84  61  89  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TP
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...TP