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000
FXUS62 KTAE 240710
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY...

.NEAR TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Surface high pressure dominates the forecast this period leading to
another quiet and dry day. High temperatures were adjusted a few
degrees lower than the NBM, which has the majority of region topping
out in the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. Tonight, low temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 50s for the SW GA and the FL Big Bend,
and in the upper 50s to near 60 for SE AL and the W FL Panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Northwest upper level flow and a weak building ridge moving in
from the west will be the predominant upper level pattern to end
the work week. At the surface, a mostly dry backdoor cold front
will move through the region from the north/northeast as surface
high pressure builds down the eastern seaboard Thursday into
Friday. Cool air is not likely behind this front, but it will at
least help delay the warm up back into the upper 80s until later
part of the upcoming weekend and we`ll likely just see a switch to
light northeasterly winds Thursday becoming stronger out of the
east on Friday as high pressure continues to nose down the
Atlantic coast.

Mostly dry conditions expected but with the enhanced easterly
flow, slight uptick in low level moisture, and a weak upper level
trough passing through in advance of the ridge, we could squeeze
out a brief shower during the afternoon so have left low POPs
around 10 to 15 generally along the I-75 corridor for Friday
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

A mostly dry and warm pattern is expected through the weekend and
into early next week as upper level ridging develops over the
eastern third of the country. At the surface, strong high pressure
will develop over the eastern third of the country with
persistent east and southeasterly flow forecast into early next
week. No significant systems of note are expected and this isn`t
uncommon as late April/May is typically one of two dry seasons we
have and systems typically begin to struggle to get this far
south this time of year. Looking ahead into the middle and later
part of next week, increasing moisture could bring an early
preview of our typical summertime weather/storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the period. KABY
started reporting some MVFR cigs, so opted to add a tempo group in
for that. Guidance, satellite, and webcams aren`t really picking
up on it so it`s tough to say how long this might last. Outside of
that, KVLD could potentially drop to MVFR vis for a few hours
based off persistence forecasting.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Light and variable winds are expected into Wednesday and early
Thursday before an east and southeasterly flow regime begins to
take over for the end of the week and upcoming weekend. With a
strong pressure gradient developing, and the combination of the
Atlantic Seabreeze, expect cautionary/advisory level conditions to
develop for the weekend. The strongest winds are likely to be in
the overnight and early morning hours as the easterly surges from
the Atlantic seabreeze pass through.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Not much change to the forecast as lighter transport winds will lead
to fair dispersions today and tomorrow. Come Friday, transport winds
and surface winds increase due to a tightening pressure gradient
over the region. This will likely lead to area wide high
dispersions. Dry weather is forecast to prevail through the period,
though moisture will gradually increase this Friday and into this
weekend as winds become onshore and pull moisture in from the
Gulf.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Minor flooding continues along the middle and lower Suwannee, the
lower Withlacoochee, the Aucilla, and the St. Marks Rivers. The
Aucilla and St. Marks continue to fall and should exit flood stage
during the next 2 to 3 days. On the Suwannee, the flood wave is
now near Branford and will continue to move downstream over the
next 5 to 7 days. Little to no rainfall is expected during the
next week, and there are no flood concerns as a result.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Tallahassee   79  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
Panama City   76  63  82  63 /   0   0   0   0
Dothan        79  59  84  61 /   0   0  10   0
Albany        80  57  83  62 /   0   0  10   0
Valdosta      79  57  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cross City    79  55  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  73  62  77  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...KR
SHORT TERM...Dobbs
LONG TERM....Dobbs
AVIATION...KR
MARINE...Dobbs
FIRE WEATHER...KR
HYDROLOGY...Young