482
FXUS62 KTBW 012352
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
752 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

It has been an active evening across SWFL especially where a deeper
moisture column support several thunderstorms. With 500mb
temperatures hovering around -10C, this also led to some small hail
reports, in addition to two funnel clouds across the region. With
the atmosphere now worked over in SWFL, most of the activity has
now wound down. There are just a couple showers ongoing as of this
writing.

However, the East and West Coast sea breeze boundaries are just now
colliding in Central Florida. Could this potentially elide a
couple more storms yet? Perhaps. Early data from the 0Z sounding
shows a deep enough moisture layer for what is most likely to be
low-topped showers rather than large and intense thunderstorms as
were seen earlier this evening. The moisture column is more
shallow the farther north one travels, and there is also a
stronger inversion and sharper cutoff to the aforementioned
moisture. This also should mean that anything new to develop is
likely to be isolated and short-lived.

Just a couple little tweaks to the forecast have been made to the
next couple hours to reflect current trends and expectations.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 750 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Showers and thunderstorms are winding down, with predominant VFR
conditions expected to prevail. There are indications that
additional convection could develop again tomorrow, but this
should be pretty isolated in nature. Thus, probs are quite low for
all terminals, but are highest for KLAL and KPGD. Elsewhere,
there is a 10 to 20% chance likely around or after 21Z. A similar
pattern will play out through the weekend.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure near Bermuda continues to ridge westward over Florida
and into the Gulf of Mexico and will dominate the weather with
mostly rain-free conditions through the week and into the weekend.
Winds will remain 10 knots or less and seas 2 feet or less making
for pleasant boating conditions through the week. A sea breeze is
expected close to the coast each afternoon and evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

High pressure builds in over the area and will dominate the weather
through the period. A slight chance of afternoon/evening showers and
storms will be possible the next few days, primarily over the
interior. RH values are expected to remain above critical levels
with no other fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  71  90  72  90 /   0  20   0  10
FMY  70  90  70  90 /  20  20  10  10
GIF  67  90  67  91 /  20  20   0  10
SRQ  69  89  69  90 /  10  20   0  10
BKV  63  92  64  91 /  10  20   0  10
SPG  73  88  73  87 /   0  20   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Wynn