Routine Space Environment Product (Daily) Issued by NWS
000
FXXX10 KWNP 230031
DAYTDF
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 23 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
# 3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast
The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 23-Mar 25 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).
NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 23-Mar 25 2024
Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25
00-03UT 1.67 2.33 3.00
03-06UT 1.67 2.33 4.67 (G1)
06-09UT 1.33 2.00 3.00
09-12UT 1.33 2.00 3.67
12-15UT 1.00 4.00 3.00
15-18UT 1.67 3.33 2.00
18-21UT 1.33 4.00 3.00
21-00UT 1.67 4.00 3.00
Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 25 March due
primarily to CH HSS effects.
B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast
Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.
Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 23-Mar 25 2024
Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25
S1 or greater 5% 5% 5%
Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.
C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 22 2024 2032 UTC.
Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 23-Mar 25 2024
Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar 25
R1-R2 50% 50% 50%
R3 or greater 10% 10% 10%
Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected. No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.