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000
FXXX10 KWNP 170031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 17 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024 is 5.67 (NOAA Scale
G2).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 17-Apr 19 2024

             Apr 17       Apr 18       Apr 19
00-03UT       5.67 (G2)    4.33         3.00
03-06UT       4.67 (G1)    3.00         3.00
06-09UT       3.67         5.00 (G1)    2.67
09-12UT       2.33         4.00         2.33
12-15UT       2.33         3.00         2.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
18-21UT       3.67         1.67         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         2.00         2.00

Rationale: G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storms are expected early on 17 Apr
due to continued CME influences. G1 (Minor) storm levels are expected on
18 Apr due to an additional enhancement from CMEs that left the Sun on
14 and 15 Apr.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024

              Apr 17  Apr 18  Apr 19
S1 or greater   10%     10%     10%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storms all three days due to collective potential from
numerous active regions.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 16 2024 1802 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 17-Apr 19 2024

              Apr 17        Apr 18        Apr 19
R1-R2           60%           60%           60%
R3 or greater   10%           10%           10%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts are likely on all
three days. There is a slight chance for R3 (Strong) or greater radio
blackouts all three days. All due to potential from several regions.