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000
FXUS65 KTFX 121145
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
545 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024

...Aviation Section Update...

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect mild afternoon temperatures for the next several days, with
afternoon highs about 15 to 20 degrees above normal through Sunday.
There will passing showers or thunderstorms each day through
Monday as well. A strong cold front will move southward on Monday
night changing the rain to snow at all elevations by Tuesday,
with temperatures about 20 degree below normal by Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Sunday...A southwesterly flow aloft will be over
Montana for the next several days. Early mild spring time air will
continue to move northward into Central MT over the next few days.
Afternoon temperatures will generally average between 15 and 20
degrees above normal from today thru Sunday. Upper level
disturbances will also be moving northeast through the CWA fairly
frequently over the next several days as well. This will result in
passing showers/thunderstorms over the CWA through Sunday. Most
showers will be quick moving, so no all day rainfalls are
expected. During the afternoon/evening hours, the airmass will
become unstable. The HRRR has a few storms producing wind gusts
around 50 mph between 5 PM and 8 PM this evening around Bozeman,
Helena and Standford. Small hail is also possible with the
stronger storms. Similar afternoon conditions are expected for
Sat/Sun but with slightly lower instability, the probability for
a stronger storm is slightly lower.

Monday...Most of Monday will be mild, as the main cold front does
not arrive until Monday night. A few showers/thunderstorms are
still possible Monday, especially along/ahead of the cold front.

Tuesday through Friday...Expect periods of accumulating snow for
Tuesday and Wednesday, as the main upper level trof moves
southward into Montana. Snow amounts are still a bit uncertain,
but for now, the heaviest snowfall is expected in the mountains in
4 different areas, mainly around Glacier Park, Kings Hill, Big
Snowy and the mountains around Big Sky. There is 50 percent chance
that snow accumulations could exceed 9 inches in these areas.
Elsewhere, snow accumulations are lighter. The Great Falls to
Lewistown area has the highest probability of 6 inches of snowfall
for lower elevation locations, which is around 40 percent. Winter
weather statements will need to be issued for this event in the
coming days. It will be windy Tue into Wed over North Central MT
with a strong north wind. This could create some blowing snow and
poor visibility impacts, along with cold wind chill values.
Otherwise, air temperatures will also turn much colder. By
Wednesday, afternoon temperatures will be about 20 degrees below
normal, or about 40 degrees colder than this weekend. Overnight
lows in the teens and 20s will be common, with a few of the colder
locations i the single digits by late next week. Brusda

&&

.AVIATION...
545 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2024 (12/12Z TAF Period)

Note: The NWS Great Falls Weather Forecast Office manages the
following TAFs: KCTB, KHVR, KGTF, KLWT, KHLN, KBZN and KEKS

VFR conditions prevail at all airfields for the duration of this TAF
forecast period. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
move across Montana, this afternoon and evening, impacting an area
from south of KCTB to south of KHVR, and further south through
central and southwest Montana. Gusty winds to 35KT impact aviation
along the Northern Rocky Mountain Front and through the mountain
valleys of southwest Montana. Of course, all hazards should be
assumed, near thunderstorm.
- Fogleman

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather
and hazard information.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  70  43  72  43 /  20  20  10  10
CTB  63  39  67  36 /  20  10   0   0
HLN  73  45  73  45 /  20  20  10  10
BZN  72  39  72  38 /  20  20  20  10
WYS  60  30  62  27 /  20  10  10   0
DLN  69  39  70  38 /  20  20  10   0
HVR  68  42  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
LWT  68  41  67  42 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

http://www.weather.gov/greatfalls