044
FXUS63 KTOP 071916
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
216 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated showers possible tonight near Nebraska border,
 isolated strong storm possible southeast of I-35 Wednesday
 morning.

- Mostly dry for the remainder of the week with seasonable temps
  in the low 70s, heating up to 80s this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 215 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

Broad westerly flow aloft per water vapor imagery across the central
and south central CONUS this afternoon with the upper low center
rotating through the Dakotas.  The Pacific cold front that passed
through last evening is currently located over western MO. Much
drier and welcoming conditions this afternoon with full sunshine
aiding highs to the upper 70s.  The next embedded midlevel vort max
enters the region this evening as an inverted sfc trough
traversing southern KS advects dewpoints back into the low 50s
towards far eastern Kansas. Over far northern Kansas, meager
moisture available below 12kft lends to low confidence in rain
showers developing across far northern Kansas this evening.
Focusing over southeast KS, 06Z CAM guidance hinted at the
position of the sfc trough being a bit further north and
generating a line of showers and storms towards
Anderson/Franklin counties. The 12Z guidance however is trending
50-100 miles east with convection initiating so confidence in
development over has CWA has lowered. If storms were to enter
the area around 12-15Z, they would be elevated with hail being
the main concern through mid Wednesday morning.

Only other system to watch enters far northern Kansas Thursday with
low chances for showers and isolated thunder.  Ensembles and
operational guidance are not terribly excited with the amount of
moisture with the wave, despite the upper level forcing being
decent.

Cooler air filters in behind the passing front by Thursday as temps
drop back to near 70 degrees with occasional gusty winds Thursday
afternoon. Elongated upper troughing spread across the central CONUS
separates after Thursday, cutting off the upper low to our west and
providing a much needed break from storm chances next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Tue May 7 2024

VFR at terminals highlighted by gusty west winds up to 20 kts
through 00Z. Mid clouds increase from the west overnight as
winds drop off and become light and VRB as an inverted sfc
trough passes to the south.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Prieto
AVIATION...Prieto