974
FXUS65 KTWC 200844
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
144 AM MST Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak trough will bring several degrees of cooling along with
gusty afternoon winds this week. A slight chance of dry
thunderstorms later this afternoon, otherwise dry conditions
through the week with typical late May temperatures in the 90s
for most locations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak low is shearing into the base of a broader
mean trough position that is developing over the Great Basin and
intermountain west. With our area sandwiched between this and a
strong ridge across Mexico we`ll see breezy to locally wind
conditions developing across SE AZ by late morning and early
afternoon. Still seeing some notable increase in ensemble mean
integrated WV transport, with mean specific humidities increasing
above H7. Short range ensembles suggesting a modest but notable
increase in shear as well. HRRR is keeping best chances of
isolated convection north of us, but we could still see a few
buildups later this afternoon with a stray lightning strike or two
possible.

Initial impulses will lift into the central plains with a zonal
flow late Tuesday into early Wednesday before additional energy
reinforces the trough mainly north of our area the second half of
the week. That will keep things relatively dry this far south,
but should continue to bring gusty afternoon winds most days while
also maintaining temps near or a little above climo.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 21/12Z
SCT-BKN AOA 12K FT AGL. SFC winds around 8-10 kts will become
light and variable overnight. Light winds early, becoming westerly
at 12-20 kts after 20/17Z with stronger gusts in the afternoon.
Winds diminishing aver 21/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions continue this week with min RHs in the single
digits for the lower valleys and the teens for the higher terrain.
Generally poor overnight recoveries. Weak weather systems passing
to our north will bring gusty afternoon winds most days,
especially Monday. With the low RHs, higher winds, and the dry
fuels a Red Flag Warning has been issued for Monday morning
through Monday evening for most lower elevations east of Tucson.
In addition, there is potential for isolated dry thunderstorms
late Monday, with most activity probably north of the area.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this
evening for AZZ152.

&&

$$


Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson