Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 261046
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
446 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
143 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

-Continued cool today with much warmer weather for the end of the
 week

-Turning unsettled this weekend into next week with chances for
 rain and snow, with accumulating snow possible

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday)
Issued at 143 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Cold upper trough and associated sfc low continue to exit the
region this morning with sfc ridging ongoing. Mean layer ridging
can be expected through most of the work week as a western CONUS
ridge shifts east. However, active unsettled flow will return this
weekend into next week as another deep upper trough shifts into
the western CONUS. Below average temps will continue today as a
modified arctic airmass and lingering snow pack remains in place
most places. The exception will be NE WY where WAA will be ongoing
today, with temps expected into the 30s. Most other places will
see teens and 20s for highs. Warm air will continue to shift east
Wed, with weak FGEN possibly supporting a few light snow showers
or flurries in the Black Hills and maybe NW SD. Otherwise,
continued warming will allow for temps into the 50s west with 30s
and 40s east. Upper trough will kick out the lee side trough Thur
with a sfc low crossing the region. Thermal ridge will shift east
with the warm front lifting north across the SW half with temps
surging into the 60s there. The northward extent of the front will
hinge on snow pack to the north and the track of the low. Precip
will be possible with this system Thur night into Friday, possibly
starting as a wintry mix in NW SD given warm nose aloft. Active
SW will with a stalled frontal boundary over the region will then
support active weather into early next week until the main trough
ejects out of the Rockies. Models continue to differ on the track
and evolution of this system with some models continuing to offer
a band of heavy snow across NW SD Sunday into Monday, something to
keep an eye on.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued At 444 AM MDT Tue Mar 26 2024

Local MVFR/IFR ceilings across parts of the southern Black Hills
into southwestern South Dakota will dissipate this morning.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...7


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