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000
FXUS63 KUNR 111107
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
507 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
245 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

- Warming trend today and Friday, with very mild weather this
  weekend (highs in the 70s and lower 80s).

- Next noteworthy chances for precipitation are not until early
  to mid next week, with cooler air returning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Current surface analysis shows high pressure from eastern MT to
eastern WY and into the far western Dakotas. Upper level analysis
shows shortwave trough to the east of the region, with northwest
flow across the area ahead of ridge over the west coast states.
Skies are now mainly clear across the area with temps mostly in
the upper 20s and 30s.

Ridge to the west will slowly move east across the Rockies and
eventually over the Plains over the next several days, with a
warming trend taking place, especially for Friday and the weekend.
Ensemble output supports well above average temps for Friday into
the beginning of next week, with highs in the 70s and lower 80s over
the weekend. Breezy northwesterly winds will redevelop late this
morning and afternoon to the east of the Black Hills, especially
into central SD. Some breezy conditions will likely develop over the
weekend as well with the warmer conditions in place. Chances for
pcpn will be minimal through the weekend with the ridge moving over
the region, but cannot totally rule out a few showers trying to
develop over the weekend with any weak disturbance that can pass
through the ridge.

As the ridge moves east of the area toward the beginning of next
week, large scale upper trough will move across the western into
central US early to mid week. The first system passing through the
trough would bring increasing chances for showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday, but the core of the system is
progged to track mostly south and east of the forecast area right
now. Cooler air will gradually build into the region, though Monday
still looks to be rather mild in most areas. Secondary wave within
the upper trough could bring better chances for rain and at least
some higher elevation snow toward mid week. Still a lot of
uncertainty noted in the ensembles with regard to the track of these
systems at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Friday Morning)
Issued At 507 AM MDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26
AVIATION...SE