688
FXUS63 KUNR 071931
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
131 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Cool and unsettled through Thursday with breezy conditions.

-Some high elevation snow is expected tonight through Wed
 morning.

-Warming up this weekend with drier weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Massive closed upper low over the Dakotas will linger through
Thurs, supporting cool and unsettled conds. The heaviest precip
has ended across the region. Although there will another push of
pos theta-e adv and associated precip tonight into Wed. Best
chance for precip will be across the far west (NE WY and the
northern Black Hills) where another half to one inch of water
equivalent is expected. In addition, snow will continue in the
higher elevations of the Black Hills above 5 kft, with another 2-5
inches of snow expected above 6kft tonight into Wed morning.
Winds will continue to wane through this evening with the
strongest winds occurring across NW SD and the far NE WY plains.
May end up extending the high wind warning through 03Z this
evening when the NPW is updated around 21Z this afternoon. The
wind adv for the the SD plains should be able to be expired at 21Z
and 00Z as scheduled. Best chances for precip the next two days
will be over NE WY with more scattered to isolated showers on the
SD plains. Breezy winds can be expected through Friday until an
upper ridge starts to build into the region. Flow will then
transition to NW aloft, with weak passing impulses expected in the
flow. This will support much warmer weather with semi-unsettled
conds as passing impulses support low chances for showers and a
few thunderstorms by early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday)
Issued At 1152 AM MDT Tue May 7 2024

Areas of rain showers (snow in the higher elevation areas of the
Black Hills) will continue on and off through the TAF period.
Strong west- northwest winds will persist through this afternoon,
with gusts 45 to 50 knots likely at KGCC and KRAP. MVFR/IFR cigs
spread into northeastern WY, northwestern SD, and the northern
Black Hills tonight into Wednesday morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-012-013-
     025-072-073-078.
     Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for SDZ002-
     014-026-031-032-043-044-046-047-049-077.
     Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for SDZ027-030-041-
     042-074>076.
WY...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for WYZ054-056-060.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...Dye