Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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203 FXUS63 KUNR 301852 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1252 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week. - Next cold front arrives late Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Tuesday) Issued at 1234 PM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Water vapor shows broad upper low over the Pac NW and Northern Rockies, with distinct lead short wave over western SD. At the surface, low has shifted into central SD with cold front through our entire forecast area...with winds gusting around 50 mph across the western SD plains mainly near/north of I-90. Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms continue on the plains east of the Black Hills. Showers/storms will quickly push east of the forecast are by this evening as short wave shifts east of the area. Winds will also be on the decrease, and the current 00Z expiration of the wind advisory looks good. Next distinct short wave arrives late Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty southerly winds will develop on the plains of western SD ahead of the associated cold front, with cold frontal passage in northeast WY during the afternoon and western SD during the evening and overnight. Showers and few thunderstorms are likely with the passage of the cold front, with very limited chance for any severe storms. Thermal profiles will support some snow in the Black Hills and possibly the plains of northeast WY. Any minor accumulations should be limited to higher elevations. Diurnally driven showers will continue on Thursday along with gusty northwest winds. Broad upper low works eastward across the southern Canadian provinces Friday, with cyclonic flow and diurnal heating providing continues chances for showers across the region. Breezy northwest and cool temps will continue. Upper ridge finally builds in for the weekend behind departing upper low/trof, with drier and warmer weather on the way. However, some diurnally driven showers/storms may be possible at times. Highs will be in the 60s Saturday and 70s Sunday for most plains locations, a little cooler in the Black Hills. Next upper low/trof approaches early next week for more unsettled weather. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1050 AM MDT Tue Apr 30 2024 Northwest winds (gusting around 40kts) will continue over much of western South Dakota through this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will occur, mainly over south central South Dakota this afternoon. LCL MVFR CIGS are possible with the showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail today and tonight. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014- 031-032-073-078. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...10