Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
474 FXUS63 KUNR 050850 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 250 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Windy across the western SD plains today. -Cool, windy, and unsettled for much of this week. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Saturday) Issued at 203 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024 08Z upper level analysis has shortwave ridge across the Central Plains, with deep upper low across northern California. Skies are mainly clear across the Northern Plains at the moment. At the surface, high pressure resides across the Northern and Central Plains, with strong low pressure over Idaho. Temperatures at 2am across the forecast area are in the 40s, with southerly winds. Transient upper ridge will quickly shift east today as large upper low shifts into the Great Basin area. Surface low pressure over Idaho will move into western Wyoming today, producing a strong pressure gradient across the Northern Plains. Southerly winds around 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph will develop across the forecast area by mid day, and persist into the evening hours. As the surface low approaches the area, some showers and thunderstorms could develop over northeast Wyoming late in the afternoon, with precip chances shifting into western South Dakota this evening. Widespread severe storms are not anticipated at this time. Upper low crosses the Rockies late tonight into Monday, with more widespread rain showers and thunderstorms expected across northeast Wyoming and far western SD. Rainfall amounts across northeast WY, the Black Hills, and northwest South Dakota will likely be half an inch to an inch on Monday. More scattered showers and storms are expected south and east of the Black Hills. As the strong surface trof shifts through the area, gusty west to northwest winds are expected, which may require another wind advisory across the SD plains. Temperatures should be cool enough Monday night for some light snow accumulations across the higher elevations of the Black Hills. Strong system becomes stacked across western North Dakota by Tuesday, with blustery conditions continuing across the area. Precip chances become lighter and more scattered on Tuesday as the main weather system resides north of the area. Once again, wind highlights will likely be needed on Tuesday, especially across northwestern South Dakota. Upper low and main upper trof finally shifts southeast on Wednesday, dropping back through central SD on its way out of the Northern Plains. Unsettled weather continues with better chances for precipitation across the SD plains. West to northwest winds remain very breezy. Thursday will be slightly warmer with continued chances of light rain showers and isolated thunderstorms, along with breezy north winds. Weather will slowly warm up and dry out toward the weekend as the upper low finally exits the region and a ridge of high pressure builds across the western CONUS. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Sunday Night) Issued At 1049 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024 Low-level wind shear is possible after 06-08z tonight, especially over the foothills and western SD plains. Gusty south- southeasterly winds will increase in coverage from KGCC after 06z, spreading westward into the morning hours for western SD/KRAP. These winds will persist through Sunday afternoon; gusts 30-40 knots are likely. Chances of showers and storms after 18z across NE WY, with spotty showers/storms spreading into western SD Sunday afternoon and evening. Outside of transient MVFR/IFR conditions in heavier showers, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Wind Advisory from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ today to 11 PM MDT /midnight CDT/ this evening for SDZ001-002-012>014-030>032- 042>044-046-047-049-073-075>078. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15 AVIATION...SE