Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 191048 AAC

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
448 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Northwest-north winds gusting to around 40kt to continue over the
northeast plains and along the east slopes of the central mt chain,
then diminish aft 15-18Z. Otherwise, variable amounts of high clouds
with lcl MVFR cigs over ne NM before 18Z.


.PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018...
Overall, much less wind is in store for today, through, windy
conditions will persist across northeast New Mexico behind a back
door cold front. Temperatures will remain below normal area wide. A
warming trend will begin on Tuesday and persist through Thursday as
an upper level ridge shifts eastward across the Desert Southwest.
Strong winds will return on Friday. The winds will increase critical
fire weather conditions across the east but precipitation will return
to the forecast for the northwest. Any precipitation will be quick-
hitting, though the winds may persist through the weekend.


Wind speeds are once again diminishing across east central NM as the
upper low pulls away from NM. However, strong north to northwest
winds associated with the back door cold front will persist across
far northeast NM through much of the day. Breezy conditions will be
possible elsewhere and with temperatures below normal area wide in
the wake of the upper low, the breezy conditions will make it feel
even colder. The back door segment of the front will continue to
slide down the plains today, and more-so, tonight. Temperatures will
be noticeably cooler across the plains tonight.

Quiet and warming conditions are expected Tuesday through Thursday
as an upper level ridge slowly traverses the desert southwest. Other
than a few breezes around Clines Corners, much less wind will be in
store as well until Thursday when westerly breezes become a little
more widespread. High temperatures will be well above normal by

Southwest winds aloft will increase on Friday in advance of the next
storm system as the ridge shifts eastward. The lee side surface
trough will strengthen and strong winds will mix down to the surface,
resulting in windy conditions area wide. While widespread critical
fire weather conditions will be possible across the plains,
precipitation will be moving into northwest NM. Attm, this system
does not look to be nearly as cold or dynamic as yesterday`s system,
but high elevation snow and lower elevation rain is possible.
Thereafter, a PacNW storm system will organize off the coast and move
inland next weekend, but looks to remain far enough north to just
bring NM more wind and not much in the way of precipitation.



Gusty northwest winds will persist this morning over portions of
northeast New Mexico, then taper off. Temperatures will be about 5
to 10 degrees below average today and vent rates will be mostly good
to excellent. Lows tonight will be mostly cooler than average as

A warming trend will commence Tuesday with further warming Wednesday
and Thursday when temperatures will range from around 5 to 15
degrees above average. Westerly winds will be breezy in the
afternoons Tuesday and Wednesday, allowing for localized critical
fire weather conditions from the Clines Corners to the Santa Rosa
area. Humidities trend lower into Wednesday, and some poor overnight
recoveries are possible especially Tuesday night through the Rio
Grande Valley and Central and Northeast Highlands. Vent rates
Tuesday will be mostly good with some pockets of poor in the Middle
RGV and Northwest Highlands, but improve overall Wednesday.

Models continue to suggest westerly flow will bring a disturbance
and a slug of moisture to the state Thursday/Friday, along with
increasing winds. Chances for precipitation will be relegated to the
northwest/western third to half of the region while minimum
humidities fall to below 15 percent over the eastern plains.
Critical fire weather conditions now appear less likely Thursday in
the plains, but Friday still looks like a solid day for widespread
critical conditions east of the central mountain chain. Vent rates
both Thursday and Friday are forecast to be excellent overall.

Saturday appears to be breezy to windy and dry with near to above
average temperatures. Forecast models tend to diverge thereafter in
the strength, timing and placement of incoming systems.


Wind Advisory until 3 PM MDT this afternoon for the following
zones... NMZ527-530.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for the following
zones... NMZ523.


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