Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 250914
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
314 AM MDT Fri May 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
West to southwest winds will bring hot dry weather across southern
New Mexico and west Texas through this Memorial Day weekend and
next week with no rain expected. Winds will be occasionally breezy
to marginally windy through much of the period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Unseasonably deep upper low now entering central California will
drift slowly east next several days passing through Nevada on
Saturday and Utah on Sunday and Monday. With upper high centered
over north central Mexico this pattern sill induce deep southwest
to westerly flow across southern New Mexico and west Texas
through the Memorial Day with sustained inflow of hot dry air mass
at low levels and mid levels. Some Pacific moisture may advect at
higher levels resulting in periods of cirrus cloud coverage but
otherwise air mass will have little water vapor content below 500
mb. Consequently surface dewpoints will remain below 30 F most of
the CWA as dry line stays to the east. Thus above normal
temperatures and no rain is expected. Gradients will also
increase somewhat as surface troughing to the east persists due
to downslope warming. This will cause winds to increase into the
breezy to marginally windy categories many locations beginning on
Saturday.

Upper low will eject to the northeast Tuesday as another trough
slowly moves east into California later periods. Meanwhile upper
high will remain centered to the south across Mexico. This
situation will sustain hot dry southwesterly flow with dry weather
and above normal temperatures continuing through next week.

&&

.AVIATION...valid 25/12z-26/12z.
VFR conditions with skies SCT-BKN200. Wind speeds mostly from 5-15
kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
West to southwest winds will bring hot dry weather across southern
New Mexico and west Texas through this Memorial Day weekend and
next week with no rain expected. Temperatures will be around 7 to
12 degrees above normal each day with lowest afternoon humidity
generally below 15 percent most areas. Winds will be occasionally
breezy to marginally windy through much of the period with Red
Flag conditions expected over some areas mainly west of the Rio
Grande Saturday afternoon. Near Red Flag conditions are also
expected during the afternoon over many locations next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 98  68 101  70 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           96  67 100  68 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              94  61  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              94  62  98  64 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              74  52  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   95  62  97  62 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             88  56  89  53 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  95  58  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               93  58  96  56 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      97  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               98  64 102  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock           100  69 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              94  66  96  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  99  65 102  66 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            96  65  99  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          95  66  98  67 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           95  60  98  62 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   96  60  99  60 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                97  61  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               95  67  99  68 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 84  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               84  55  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                83  54  84  55 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 90  54  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               92  59  94  57 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               94  60  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            88  50  87  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  89  55  91  52 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   91  50  93  48 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              90  54  90  52 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 91  57  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  94  58  97  57 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 95  58  98  57 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          94  59  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              90  57  92  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash



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