Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 232335
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
635 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.UPDATE...
00Z Aviation forecast below.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail tonight and Tuesday with high cirrus
streaming into the region. Winds at SAT/AUS becoming light and
variable overnight through mid morning Tuesday. Winds at DRT
SE around 10 kts overnight through mid morning Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 313 PM CDT Mon Apr 23 2018/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Tuesday Night)...
Light southerly flow develops tonight into Tuesday morning with low
level moisture slow to return. For this reason, will stick to
conservative PoPs for when an unstable NWly flow pattern develops
late Tuesday night over the Southern Edwards Plateau. The slow return
of dewpoints should lead to below normal mins tonight, then near
normal mins for Tuesday night. In between, abundant sun Tuesday
should bring above normal maxes. Clouds should increase late Tuesday
night with probably most of the clouds arriving in the mid levels.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
A cold front arrives Wednesday morning and brings enhanced lift to
add to the instability aloft, making for favorable conditions for at
least scattered convection. Typical NW flow events are progressive
and likely to produce hit-and-miss type coverage, especially given
the limited time for moisture to pool. Without a Gulf inflow to feed
the lingering NW flow pattern, expect the convection to be mainly
elevated with showers and weak thunderstorms. By Thursday morning,
the flow aloft becomes dry and stable in advance of a weather NW flow
perturbation bringing a mostly dry front into the area Friday
morning. The weaker front should allow for faster moisture recovery
over the weekend as the pattern becomes zonal aloft. Mostly stable
conditions are expected Saturday with a weak perturbation developing
convection over Nrn Mexico just to the west of our area during the
day. A persistent SW flow pattern aloft developing into next Monday
should looks to promote orographic convection over Mexico with weak
perturbations spilling NE into our forecast area lined with pacific
Moisture. This pattern should lead to continued mild weather and
isolated to low chance PoPs Saturday night into next Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              58  87  60  78  53 /   0   0  -   30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  55  86  58  78  52 /   0   0  -   30  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     56  86  59  78  54 /   0   0  -   30  40
Burnet Muni Airport            56  86  59  73  49 /   0   0  -   40  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           62  92  66  75  57 /   0   0  -   60  40
Georgetown Muni Airport        55  85  58  77  51 /   0   0  -   30  30
Hondo Muni Airport             57  89  61  78  55 /   0   0  -   40  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  87  59  78  53 /   0   0  -   30  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   56  84  60  80  55 /   0   0  -   20  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       59  87  61  78  56 /   0   0  -   30  40
Stinson Muni Airport           58  88  62  79  57 /   0   0  -   30  40

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Runyen
Synoptic/Grids...Treadway
Public Service/Data Collection...YB



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