947
FXUS65 KFGZ 032115
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
215 PM MST Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and mostly dry conditions will continue through
tomorrow. Winds will start to increase ahead of an incoming low-
pressure system on Saturday, peaking on Sunday. Slight chance for
isolated showers along the Kaibab on Sunday, elsewhere will remain
mostly dry. Elevated winds will continue through much of next
week, and warm/dry conditions will persist.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Above normal temperatures, breezy afternoon winds
and mostly dry conditions have been our main song and dance for
the last several days. Our tune will shift over the weekend, as a
strong low-pressure system slides down the Great Basin region.

The first indication of this invading pressure system will be
increasing winds on Saturday. Look for southwest winds 15-25 mph,
gusting 25-35 mph, throughout the afternoon. Stronger winds may be
present along our Mohave County border, and elevated winds look to
continue overnight for many areas along higher terrain.

Sunday is when the main impacts of this storm system will unveil.
Gusty southwest winds will start around 7AM MST/8AM MDT and
continue through at least 9PM MST/10PM MDT. Gusty in this case is
referring to sustained winds 30 to 40 mph, with gusts between
45-65 mph. Keep in mind, winds might not jump to these high of
speeds first thing in the morning, but will continue to increase
throughout the morning/afternoon. As a result of these strong
winds, a High Wind Watch has been issued for much of northern
Arizona for Sunday. Hazards may include, but are not limited to,
difficult travel for high profile vehicles, power outages, and
areas of blowing dust. Strong/damaging winds are not the only
point of focus for Sunday though. There is also a near- critical
to critical fire weather concern for portions of eastern Arizona.
Relative humidity values do increase slightly on Sunday, but even
so, there are still some areas that will be very susceptible to
rapid fire starts/spreads. Thus, a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Sunday for areas near Eager, Springerville and St.
Johns. This watch is valid between 11AM MST/12PM MDT to 7PM
MST/8PM MDT. Check back for any updates to the High Wind Watch
and/or the Fire Weather Watch.

Early next week, this storm system will push northeast and allow a
zonal flow to return over northern Arizona. Temperatures will
slowly warm from Sunday, but still remain a couple degree below
normal through the middle of next week. Winds will also remain
gusty near our eastern border with the exit of the storm system,
but typical spring-like breezes should return for much of next
week.


&&

.AVIATION...Friday 03/18Z through Saturday 04/18Z...Expect VFR
conditions with scattered mid-level clouds. Winds will be out of
the west-southwest at 10-20 kts until 02Z, becoming light and
variable through most of Saturday morning.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 04/18Z through Monday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions will persist but with increasing clouds Saturday night
into Sunday. Southwest winds at 25-30 kts on Saturday
strengthening to sustained at 25-35 kts gusting to 40-55 kts on
Sunday. Minor to moderate turbulence is likely on Sunday. Periods
of MVFR visibility in blowing dust are likely from KINW-KSJN-KRQE
northward for Sunday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Mild temperatures and dry
conditions will persist through Saturday. Saturday will see
afternoon southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph gusting to 30 mph. On
Sunday much stronger winds develop becoming southwest at 20 to 30
mph gusting of 40 to 55 mph before noon. Areas prone to downsloping
winds, including along and directly east of the Mogollon Rim, White
Mountains, and across portions of the Navajo Nation, will experience
even stronger winds of 60+ mph for much of the day. Near critical to
critical fire weather conditions are likely on Sunday over far east
Arizona. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for portions of east
central Arizona.

Monday through Wednesday...Dry and a bit warmer. Westerly winds at
10 to 20 mph gusting to 35 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for
AZZ004>017-039-040.

Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening
for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff