Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41
000
FXUS63 KICT 192006
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
306 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Water vapor imagery shows an impressive shortwave now on shore
over central CA with upper ridging over the Plains. At the
surface, surface high extends generally through the Missouri
Valley.

Compact shortwave is expected to continue tracking east tonight
and by 18z Fri will be over the central/southern Rockies and by
18z Sat over sw KS/OK Panhandle. Still looks like most of KS will
be in the wrap around region of this system. So we should see a
fairly large area of rain gradually overspread the area from west
to east Fri night into Sat morning. Best chance for any decent
rainfall rates looks to be between 06z and 12z Sat when we have
some mid level moisture transport. Pockets of showers will remain
across the entire area through Sat with temps around 15 degrees
below normal. Still not expecting much in the way of thunder Sat
as the better instability remains well south of the forecast area.

Upper low will be approaching northern AR by 12z Sun which will
allow the warp around precip to come to an end across eastern KS
by Sun afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

By 12z Mon, upper low will be approaching the Tennessee Valley as
surface high pressure settles over the Plains. ECMWF and GFS have
come into better agreement with shortwave energy expected to track
out of the northern Rockies and into the central/northern Plains
by Tue morning. This will push another cold front through Tue into
Tue evening with some associated rain chances. Lack of decent low
level moisture will once again limit any heavy rain or severe
storm chances and the airmass behind the front doesn`t look as
significantly cold as the last one.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1210 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions are forecast at all sites throughout the period.
Surface ridge will move east of the area later today. Winds become
southeast and gusty tomorrow morning. -Howerton


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 305 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Fire weather concerns are expected to remain on the low side
through the next several days.

Winds are expected to flip around to the southeast for Fri and
will generally be in the 12 to 17 mph range with higher gusts. The
higher wind speeds will be for areas west of I-135. Still a
decent shot at widespread rain on Fri night into Sat with most
locations picking up at least a quarter inch. Not looking at any
windy days through Mon with temps also expected to remain below
normal.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    39  65  45  53 /   0   0  60  60
Hutchinson      38  63  43  52 /   0  10  60  60
Newton          38  63  43  51 /   0   0  60  60
ElDorado        39  64  44  52 /   0   0  60  60
Winfield-KWLD   38  65  45  53 /   0   0  70  70
Russell         37  61  42  51 /   0  20  70  60
Great Bend      38  61  42  51 /   0  20  70  50
Salina          36  65  43  53 /   0   0  60  50
McPherson       37  62  43  51 /   0   0  60  60
Coffeyville     36  66  45  56 /   0   0  50  70
Chanute         36  65  44  54 /   0   0  50  60
Iola            36  65  44  54 /   0   0  50  60
Parsons-KPPF    36  65  45  55 /   0   0  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH
FIRE WEATHER...RBL



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.