Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KLUB 211147
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
647 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018

.AVIATION...
IFR ceilings have recently developed at KLBB and KPVW and will
likely follow at KCDS in the next 1-2 hours. Both KLBB and KPVW
should return to MVFR by mid-late morning, then VFR by mid-late
afternoon. KCDS may keep sub-VFR conditions through much of the
day. In addition, scattered weak convection will be possible
today, with KCDS having the best chance of experiencing a few
showers. A cold front will move through the terminals bringing
breezy northerly winds in its wake this afternoon. Light winds
will follow tonight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 339 AM CDT Sat Apr 21 2018/

DISCUSSION...
The upper-low is centered over east-central Colorado early this
morning, just a little farther north than what we had expected
from about 24 hours ago. The bulk of the divergence and large-
scale ascent with this system has currently shifted off to our
north and east, although we are still seeing some t-storm activity
redeveloping in the southern Rolling Plains. A surface low is
forming across the western South Plains with an increasingly
northerly component to the winds noted across the Panhandle.
Shower activity has been redeveloping across the far central
Panhandle in the convergent zone of the developing front. Finally,
we also have some patchy fog across the northwest South Plains
and far Southwest Texas Panhandle. We expect this fog to persist
until shortly after sunrise when warming temps and drier air
should dissipate it pretty quickly.

The surface low will move east-southeast across the forecast area
today, with the convergence zone on the N-NW flank progressing
from the far southern Panhandle through the north-central South
Plains and into the Rolling Plains by late afternoon. The cold
pocket aloft and wrap-around moisture associated with a vort lobe
rounding the west and south side of the upper low should support
modest instability/buoyancy with CAPE values up to around 500
J/kg, and most of the guidance indicates scattered shower activity
accompanying the convergence zone through the day. We`ve kept a
mention of thunder in the forecast due to the steep mid-level
lapse rates even though surface temps will be on the cool side.
High temperatures are expected to range from near 60 north to near
70 south.

The shower and t-storm activity across the southeast Panhandle and
Rolling Plains should end quickly this evening as the low shifts
farther east and drier air moves in from the north. This will set
up a cool night with lows in the 30s and 40s. Surface ridging and
northwest flow aloft will keep Sunday a bit on the cool side but
pleasant with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Temperatures will warm
into the 70s on Monday as low-level flow becomes a bit more
southerly.

The medium-range guidance is still indicating a pretty sharp
shortwave or upper-low sliding southeast through the Rockies and
into the High Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, driving a front into
our area on Tuesday. The timing of the front is still in question
which lowers the confidence in the temperature forecast for
Tuesday, but the front should be through the area by Tuesday
evening. The current timing of the upper system suggests that
Tuesday night could hold the best rain chances for the area in the
post-frontal regime. Moisture levels will be a concern,
especially farther west, and PoPs with this system favor the
Rolling Plains at this point. After a short recovery late
Wednesday/early Thursday, guidance suggests a similar setup late
Thursday/early Friday with the next system diving out of the
Rockies and another front, which should bring another chance of
rain. So, even though the current system underperformed in the
precipitaion department, it looks like we`ll have additional
chances in the upcoming week.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

99/99/23



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