Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 260315
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1015 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.UPDATE...

No updates planned at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A large upper level low pressure system over northwest Arkansas
will push across the Mid South tonight and Thursday. This system
will continue to spread rain across the area through the rest of
tonight. Rainfall rates should be mainly light, with a few periods
of more moderate rainfall possible. The current forecast looks on
track and no updates will be needed this evening.

JLH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 332 PM CDT Wed Apr 25 2018/

A large area of rainfall is moving across Northeast Arkansas into
the Missouri Bootheel and into West Tennessee. Cloud bases are
fairly high, so a lot of the rain is not reaching the ground, but
as the atmosphere moistens and temperatures cool toward the dew
point this afternoon, rain will become more widespread and
heavier. Additional development is expected farther South of the
initial rain area, tracking to the East resulting in a wet night
across the entire Midsouth. Rainfall totals overnight will likely
exceed one half of an inch area wide with portions of North
Mississippi approaching 1.5 inches. Only isolated weak
thunderstorms are expected...mainly in North Mississippi. These
showers and thunderstorms are the result of another cutoff low
approaching the Midsouth. This feature should be centered over the
Middle Mississippi River valley around sunrise tomorrow, over
Northeast Mississippi by Midday and move across North Alabama
tomorrow afternoon. Unlike the last cutoff low, this one is
expected to become more of a progressive open wave as it moves
across the region. As a result...rain should not hang along quite
as long. However, models often end rain and clear skies too
quickly with theses systems so will lean a bit slower in the
forecast. Rain should taper off from West to East tomorrow evening
with dry conditions tomorrow night. Clouds will linger into
Friday. Behind the low a weak cold front will move across the
Midsouth on Friday. The passage of the front will mark the end of
any rain chances. The post frontal airmass won`t be cooler.
Temperatures Friday and Saturday are actually expected to be
warmer due to increased sunshine.

Surface high pressure will build in behind the front Friday into
Saturday. A strong ridge will build over the Rockies resulting in
Northwest Flow across the Plains into the Midsouth. The Ridge and
surface high will result in a dry and sunny weekend. Temperatures
will be slightly below normal. Highs Saturday and Sunday should be
in the low to middle 70s. Morning lows will be mainly in the 40s.
Winds Saturday will be from the North over the weekend as the
surface high shifts over the Appalachians.

Dry conditions are expected to continue into early next week. The
axis of a ridge aloft should move across the Mississippi river
early Monday with a trough digging over the Western US resulting
in Southwest flow across the Midsouth. Clouds should begin to
increase by Tuesday afternoon with rain chances returning by
midweek. Temperatures will trend warmer. Near normal conditions
are expected Monday with slightly warmer than normal temperatures
Tuesday into Midweek.

30

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Set

VFR conditions to begin the period, with MVFR and IFR conds
developing as rain moves in over the next few hours. The FedEx
push may be affected by IFR conds earlier than 26/06Z, but
confidence remains low at this time. After 26/06Z, ceilings and
vsbys will drop as widespread rainfall overspreads all sites.
Conditions are not expected to improve until after 26/15Z at the
earliest, but confidence also remains low in this scenario.
Conditions will likely improve near the end of this TAF set. Winds
will remain from the north through the period, generally below 10
kts.

AC3

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$



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