Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
000
FXUS64 KOUN 291118
AFDOUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
618 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A lee surface low will deepen this afternoon near the OK panhandle
and the pressure gradient will increase across the Southern
Plains. Breezy south winds, just below advisory criteria speeds,
will develop late this morning and continue through this afternoon
as a result. 850-925 mb flow is quite impressive throughout the
day (40-50 kt) across the eastern 2/3 of OK, but increasing
cirrostratus may limit overall mixing and hence the reason we`ve
decided to stay below criteria speeds. Temperatures will continue
to climb today under the influence of increasing southerly low
level flow. The pressure gradient will decrease late tonight into
early Saturday morning as a weak cold front stalls near/just west
of the I-44 corridor. Cooler morning lows are expected across
northwestern OK, but it will remain above average for most other
locations as SSW surface flow continues, and dewpoints creep into
the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Lighter winds will remain in place throughout Saturday within a
surface trough and temps will continue to climb for most locations
under a mid to upper level trough. By Saturday night and early
Sunday morning, low level moisture advection will begin to
increase again as southerly low level flow extends from south TX
and the Gulf into OK. A dryline should sharpen near western north
TX late Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. However, given the
amount of CIN, and lack of other significant forcing, only SChcs are
in place along it.
There are still differences with regards to the timing of an upper
trough approaching the Plains Sunday night into Monday. The GFS
suggests there may be a mid level perturbation within the mid to
upper southwesterly flow that moves out of West TX late through
the early morning hours Monday. This could yield some elevated
convection, but again CIN looks to high to warrant anything higher
than SChcs even if it is correct. Some mid level echoes may be
the only thing present. The GFS moves a closed low into the
Central Plains around 18Z Monday, with fairly rapid height falls
occurring across OK and north TX and the dryline rapidly
progressing eastward. On the other hand, the ECMWF would suggest
the mid to upper low moving out of the four corners region around
21-00Z. The latter solution would result in better timing for more
widespread severe convection Monday afternoon and evening.
Regardless, very strong mid to upper flow (strong deep layer
shear) and increasing dewpoints/instability appear likely Monday
ahead of the dryline and cold front so severe weather continue to
look more likely for at least a portion of our area. The main
question is how early and how long it persists.
Cooler and quieter conditions will follow the front Tuesday, with
highs Tuesday afternoon only expected to be in the upper 50s to
low 60s. These cooler temps should be short lived, however, as
southerly low level flow returns Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Strong gusty southerly winds will develop this morning
and will last into the afternoon. High clouds will
decrease late this afternoon and evening, otherwise
VFR conditions are expected. Low level wind shear will
likely develop before 6Z at most sites. A cold front will
bring a wind shift to WWR around 10Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 73 56 78 63 / 0 0 0 0
Hobart OK 75 51 79 59 / 0 0 0 0
Wichita Falls TX 78 58 84 64 / 0 0 0 0
Gage OK 79 41 76 52 / 0 0 0 0
Ponca City OK 73 51 75 59 / 0 10 0 10
Durant OK 76 58 79 62 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...06