Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 241142
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
742 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic rain chances are expected through mid week with slow
moving low pressure. Dry weather should return Thursday under
high pressure.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
With 7:45am update, only made minor tweaks to hourly temperature
and precipitation timing.

Vertically stacked low pressure should continue to drift east
across the TN and lower OH Valley region today. Increasing deep
layer moisture and shortwave support should result in periods of
rain today, though QPF amounts should be less than 1/2 inch.

Shallow serly downsloping flow should continue to result in
wind gusts of 25-35kt on the lee of the ridges, though the
highest winds are progged to remain capped above a temperature
inversion. Lesser gusts are expected elsewhere. Temperatures are
expected to average a few degrees below seasonal levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Rain should taper off from S-N this eve as the best moisture and
lift shift N of the area. The TN/OH Valley low is expected to
open and become phased with a trough/upper low crossing the
lower Great Lakes and OH Valley region Wed. Shower chances
should continue until the passage of the trough axis in the
afternoon. Another quick moving shortwave rotating around the
low should continue low chances for showers Wed night.

Building high pressure should return dry weather to the area
Thursday and Thursday night. Below seasonal average
temperatures are expected to continue.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Model ensembles and WPC progs indicate shower chances should
return late Friday and part of Saturday with a trough crossing
the Eastern CONUS. Dry weather and gradually warming
temperatures are then expected for the rest of the forecast
period under a building Eastern CONUS ridge.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Conditions will likely start VFR, but light rain overspreading
the area this morning will moisten the lower levels and allow
clouds to slowly lower. MVFR conditions will develop from south
to north this morning at most terminals as steadier rain
arrives, and continue through the rest of the day. Some IFR
ceilings will begin to appear late tonight, even as showers
become spottier. Winds will once again gust to between 15 and
25 knots from late morning through the afternoon, mainly out of
the east and southeast, before diminishing after sunset.

OUTLOOK...
MVFR/IFR conditions are likely through Wednesday for all sites
with slow moving low pressure.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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