Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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000
FNUS53 KAPX 230717
FWFAPX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
317 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

...A dry atmosphere today with deep mixing and low afternoon
humidity...

.DISCUSSION...High pressure, dry air and light winds will hold
through Thursday. Deep low level mixing into the dry air will result
in critical/near critical humidities this afternoon. Sfc dew points
will slowly rise after today, into the 50s and possible lower 60s in
spots by this weekend. This will occur out ahead of approaching low
pressure and a warm front, and bring an end to concerns with low
afternoon humidity. In addition, chances for showers and some
thunderstorms will return for mainly Friday night through this
weekend.


MIZ016-017-019-021>023-232015-
Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency
Counties-
317 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny. Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........24-29 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......24 percent drier...except 17 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 5 mph in
                    the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (550).
Mixing Height.......5200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (10).
Mixing Height.......200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....81-86...except 62-67 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 52-57 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......14 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (600).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ018-024-030-036-042-232015-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
317 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny. Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except 60-65 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........22-27 percent...except 42-47 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......21 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    east in the afternoon.
Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (740).
Mixing Height.......6600 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent). Patchy fog after 2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 78-83 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter...except unchanged along the
                    coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southeast winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Patchy fog until
                    1200.
Max Temperature.....80-85...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 51-56 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (610).
Mixing Height.......6200 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ020-025>027-232015-
Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska
Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL-
317 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny. Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....75-80...except around 61 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........29-34 percent...except 60-65 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......25 percent drier...except 1 percent wetter
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (450).
Mixing Height.......5500 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......4 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the south around
                    3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 53-58 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 62-67 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......13 percent wetter...except 5 percent drier
                    along the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (490).
Mixing Height.......4900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ031>033-232015-
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
317 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny. Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....76-81...except around 70 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent...except 59-64 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......22 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (410).
Mixing Height.......5900 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Patchy fog after
                    2400.
Min Temperature.....48-53.
   24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........95-100 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming
                    light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......100 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 3 mph after midnight.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max Temperature.....78-83...except 67-72 near the coast.
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........37-42 percent...except 49-54 percent along the
                    coast.
   24 HR Trend......9 percent wetter...except 8 percent drier along
                    the coast.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Good (500).
Mixing Height.......5400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

MIZ028-029-034-035-041-232015-
Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
317 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018

.TODAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny. Patchy fog until 1200.
Max Temperature.....77-82.
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........21-26 percent.
   24 HR Trend......27 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (850).
Mixing Height.......8400 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Min Temperature.....49-54.
   24 HR Trend......6 degrees warmer.
Max Humidity........94-99 percent.
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier.
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening
                    becoming light.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Poor (0).
Mixing Height.......0 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 3 to 6 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.

.THURSDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max Temperature.....81-86.
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer.
Min Humidity........32-37 percent.
   24 HR Trend......12 percent wetter.
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph .
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal.....Excellent (710).
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl.
Transport Winds.....West 3 to 9 mph.
Pcpn Amount.........None.


$$

.EXTENDED...

.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
5 MPH.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.MEMORIAL DAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH.

$$

SMD



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