Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX

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933
FNUS74 KAMA 161642
FWSAMA

Spot Forecast for Borger Rx Burn...Borger OEM
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1142 AM CDT Wed May 16 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 CDT on May 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (806) 335-1421, if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...
South southeast winds around 5 to 10 mph for the rest of today,
with winds becoming light out of the east southeast tonight. There
is a chance for thunderstorms today, but it looks to be very hit
and miss. If storms do manage to develop they have the potential
to be strong or severe.

Weber

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1600, then 1-8 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........37 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 7 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......3500-5000 ft AGL increasing to 5500-6000 ft AGL
                    late in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (31500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....       S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR
Tstm cov........       S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     20
LAL.............1      2
Temp............85     87
RH..............45     39
20 ft wind......S 7    S 9
20 ft wind gust.9      12
Mix hgt (kft)...3.5    6.0
Transp wind dir.S      S
Transp wind spd.10     8
Haines index....3      3
VRate kt-ft/100032     42

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms early in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1-8 strikes until 1900, then No Tstms.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms early in the
                    evening.
Mixing height.......5000 ft AGL decreasing to 0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-40000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 5 or or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  MCLEAR MCLEAR PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).20     10     10     10     10     10
LAL.............2      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............86     82     75     71     67     64
RH..............37     44     58     68     78     87
20 ft wind......SE 9   SE 9   SE 8   SE 8   SE 7   SE 5
20 ft wind gust.12     12     10     10     9      7
Mix hgt (kft)...5.0    3.0    0.1    0.1    0.1    0.1
Transp wind dir.S      S      SE     S      S      S
Transp wind spd.9      8      7      7      7      6
Haines index....3      5      5      5      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100040     21     0      0      0      0

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms until 1300, then 9-15 strikes.
Max temperature.....Around 90.
Min humidity........31 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to
                    16 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing height.......0-1500 ft AGL increasing to 8000-8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 6 to 12 mph increasing to south 16 to
                    25 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (0-35000 knot-ft) increasing to
                    excellent (176000 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky cover.......PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY  PCLDY
Weather cov.....                            CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........                            CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).10     10     10     10     30     30
LAL.............1      1      1      1      3      3
Temp............62     64     71     78     85     89
RH..............93     86     66     49     39     33
20 ft wind......SE 5   SE 7   SE 12  SE 13  SE 14  SE 15
20 ft wind gust.7      12     17     20     23     24
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1    1.5    3.5    5.5    7.0    8.5
Transp wind dir.SE     S      S      S      S      S
Transp wind spd.6      12     21     21     20     22
Haines index....4      3      3      3      4      4
VRate kt-ft/10000      15     63     99     119    162

$$
Forecaster...Weber
Requested by...Jason Whisler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1810132.0/AMA



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