624
FNUS74 KEPZ 032240
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for UNIT 74 AREA 3 RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
440 PM MDT Fri May 3 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
For Saturday, elevated fire weather conditions are expected due to
breezy south-southwest winds and continued dryness. Windier
conditions are expected for Sunday as a disturbance moves into the
region, creating critical fire danger during the afternoon. Another
breezy to windy day is forecast for Monday with lingering
breeziness into the middle of next week. Fuels will continue to dry
through the forecast period with warmer than normal temperatures.
Overnight recoveries will be poor except for Sunday night.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........10 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south 7 to 12 mph in the
                    late morning and early afternoon, then shifting
                    to the southwest around 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......12900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 6 mph increasing to south 19
                    to 22 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (38700 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (222700 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........23     14     37     37     13
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1
Temp............49     58     65     71     72
RH..............35     23     16     12     10
20 ft wind......E 3    SE 7   S 12   S 12   SW 13
20 ft wind gust.6      15     20     20     25
Mix hgt (ft)....800    7300   11300  12900  11900
Transport wind..SE 6   S 13   S 19   SW 22  SW 22
Haines index....3      4      5      6      6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..19     83     193    245    245
Ventrate Cat....POOR   GOOD   EXNT   EXNT   EXNT

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 38.
Max humidity........46 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 22 mph in the evening and overnight
                    becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 21 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (196400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
                    (5700 knot-ft) in the late evening and
                    overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........6      6      5      8      8      16
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............69     58     49     45     42     39
RH..............11     17     23     29     36     42
20 ft wind......SW 12  SW 12  SW 10  W 6    W 6    W 3
20 ft wind gust.22     20     18     15     15     9
Mix hgt (ft)....9400   1400   500    500    500    500
Transport wind..SW 21  SW 18  W 14   W 14   W 12   W 12
Haines index....6      5      4      3      4      4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..196    66     6      6      6      6
Ventrate Cat....EXNT   GOOD   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to
                    around 25 mph increasing to 19 to 21 mph with
                    gusts to around 40 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......8200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 14 mph increasing to around 38
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (49200 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
                    (201400 knot-ft) in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........32        52        36        22
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............38        52        64        69
RH..............46        30        16        10
20 FT wind......SW 5G13   SW 12G25  SW 19G35  SW 21G40
Mix hgt (ft)....900       2900      6200      8200
Transport wind..SW 14     SW 21     SW 28     SW 38
Haines index....3         3         4         5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..9         49        161       284
Ventrate Cat....POOR      FAIR      EXNT      EXNT

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.MONDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 19 mph.
.TUESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 70s. West winds
around 13 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds
around 14 mph.

$$
Forecaster...ARONSON
Requested by...Silver City Dispatch
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2412655.5/EPZ
.DELDT 05/03/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL NMSDC@FIRENET.GOV