Suppression Forecast
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FNUS74 KEPZ 180349
FWSEPZ

Spot Forecast for Russia...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service Santa Teresa NM/El Paso TX
949 PM MDT Tue Apr 17 2018

Forecast is based on request time of 2200 MDT on April 17.

If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the El Paso
National Weather Service Forecast Office.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...
Gusty west to southwest winds will continue to diminish as a
Pacific cold front moves through in the next few hours. Winds will
turn to the north and northwest for the balance of the night. Look
for winds to shift around to the south by Wednesday afternoon and
remain on the lighter side. As the dryline moves in Thursday, a
slight chance for late day thunderstorms will be possible. These
high based storms will pose a risk for some dry lightning along
with gusty and erratic winds.

.REST OF TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear (5-15 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 36.
Max humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 13 to 21 mph with gusts to around 40
                    mph shifting to the northwest 6 to 10 mph after
                    midnight.
Mixing height.......800-1700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 34 to 35 mph decreasing to 3 to 4 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (18600-55100 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........2      16     16     16
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1
Temp............45     41     40     39
RH..............16     20     16     15
20 ft wind......W 20   W 16   W 10   NW 6
20 ft wind gust.40     30     20     15
Mix hgt (ft)....1700   800    800    800
Transport wind..W 37   W 25   NW 9   NW 1
Haines index....4      4      4      4
Vent Rate.......FAIR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 60.
Min humidity........9 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 5 to 9 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph.
Mixing height.......4500 ft AGL increasing to 7700 ft AGL in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (49300 knot-ft) increasing to very good
                    (104200 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........27     27     27     17     17     17
Weather cov.....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      0      0      0      0
LAL.............1      1      1      1      1      1
Temp............36     40     51     56     58     60
RH..............21     16     12     12     10     9
20 ft wind......NW 6   W 5    SW 5   SW 6   SW 7   S 8
20 ft wind gust.10     10     10     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....4500   4500   4500   7700   7700   7700
Transport wind..W 2    S 3    S 8    W 15   SW 16  SW 16
Haines index....4      4      4      4      5      5
Vent Rate.......FAIR   FAIR   FAIR   VYGD   VYGD   VYGD

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 39.
Max humidity........39 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 8 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph
                    late in the evening.
Mixing height.......6900 ft AGL decreasing to 300 ft AGL after
                    midnight.
Transport winds.....Southeast 11 to 12 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (83100 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2800
                    knot-ft) after midnight.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (MDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky (%).........16        16        36        36
Weather cov.....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0         0         0         0
LAL.............1         1         1         1
Temp............56        47        43        41
RH..............10        17        24        30
20 FT wind......S 10G20   S 8G15    SE 9G20   SE 9G20
Mix hgt (ft)....6900      6900      300       300
Transport wind..SW 14     S 10      SE 12     SE 12
Haines index....5         5         5         5
Vent Rate.......GOOD      GOOD      POOR      POOR

$$
Forecaster...LANEY
Requested by...Sanders
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 1806911.0/EPZ
.EMAIL nmadc@fs.fed.us



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