Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FNUS73 KILX 121207
FWSILX

Spot Forecast for Buffalo Trace Rx...CCFPD
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
707 AM CDT Thu Apr 12 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0700 CDT on April 12.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (217) 732-3089 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Southwest winds will increase today, becoming 15 to 25 mph with gusts
to between 30 and 35 mph later this morning. Mixing heights will rise
to over 4000 ft, which will result in good smoke dispersal as well, but
the developing gusty surface winds later this morning could make
burning unfavorable.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........46 percent.
Slope/valley........Southwest winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph.
Mixing height.......700-2000 ft AGL increasing to 3700-4700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 22 to 31 mph decreasing to around 21
                    mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (15600-54800 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (67000 knot-ft) in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or low potential for
                    large plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      7 AM   9 AM   11 AM  1 PM   3 PM   5 PM
Sky (%).........22     21     23     27     31     34
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............53     60     67     72     75     73
RH..............69     60     52     49     46     49
20 ft wind......SW 13  SW 16  SW 16  SW 14  SW 13  S 12
20 ft wind gust.25     30     30     25     25     25
Mix hgt (ft)....700    2000   3200   3900   4700   3700
Transport wind..SW 26  SW 30  SW 30  SW 24  SW 23  SW 21
Haines index....2      3      3      3      4      4
VRate kt-ft/100016     55     82     87     94     67
SDspl kt-ft/100016     55     82     87     94     67

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........83 percent.
Slope/valley........South winds 9 to 13 mph with gusts to around 30
                    mph.
Mixing height.......700-2400 ft AGL decreasing to 400-800 ft AGL in
                    the late evening and overnight.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 22 mph increasing to 25 to 26 mph
                    after midnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to good (4700-40500 knot-ft).
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........34     35     34     36     38     40
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Temp............70     64     59     58     57     56
RH..............53     65     72     72     75     77
20 ft wind......S 12   S 9    S 10   S 12   S 13   S 12
20 ft wind gust.25     25     25     30     30     30
Mix hgt (ft)....2400   700    400    500    700    800
Transport wind..S 18   S 16   S 15   S 22   S 26   S 25
Haines index....3      3      3      2      2      2
VRate kt-ft/100041     8      5      10     16     18
SDspl kt-ft/100041     8      5      10     16     18

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent) then becoming
                    cloudy (85-95 percent). Slight chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........53 percent.
Slope/valley........South winds 13 to 18 mph with gusts to around
                    35 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the morning.
Mixing height.......800-2600 ft AGL increasing to 2300-3600 ft AGL
                    late in the morning.
Transport winds.....South 24 to 32 mph increasing to 33 to 40 mph
                    in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair to good (15300-59000 knot-ft) increasing
                    to excellent (69600 knot-ft) in the late
                    morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........41     50     72     83     87     87
Weather cov.....       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Weather type....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........       S CHC  S CHC  S CHC
Temp............55     58     64     69     72     73
RH..............83     77     67     59     53     53
20 ft wind......S 13   S 14   S 16   S 18   S 18   S 17
20 ft wind gust.30     30     30     35     35     30
Mix hgt (ft)....800    1400   2600   3400   3500   2800
Transport wind..S 24   S 29   S 36   S 39   S 40   S 38
Haines index....2      2      2      3      3      3
VRate kt-ft/100015     37     80     110    115    93
SDspl kt-ft/100015     37     80     110    115    93

$$
Forecaster...Auten
Requested by...Michael Daab
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1806471.0/ILX
.EMAIL mdaab@ccfpd.org



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