Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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174
FNUS74 KLZK 201155
FWSLZK

Spot Forecast for PCS Andy knight...U.S.FOREST SERVICE
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
655 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CDT on April 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service Immediately.

.DISCUSSION...

Expect dry conditions for today, with winds out of the east. Wind
speeds will increase late this morning, with some stronger gusts
possible through the afternoon.


.TODAY...

Temperature.........51 at ignition...Max 65.
RH..................48 percent at ignition...Min 32 percent.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Transport winds.....East 15 to 20 mph.
Stability class.....B.
20 Foot Winds.......Winds east at 8 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    East winds 5 to 8 mph.
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Dispersion..........31 increasing to 41 in the late morning and
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 4.
Eye level winds.....East winds 5 to 8 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 3600 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 4684 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............51  54  57  60  62  63  64  64
RH..............48  43  39  35  34  32  32  33
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..8   8   8   8   8   8   8   8
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Eye lvl wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
Eye lvl wnd gst.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp wind spd.20  18  16  15  15  15  16  17
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.TONIGHT...

Temperature.........Min 48.
RH..................Max 80 percent.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 21 mph shifting to the east 9
                    to 10 mph after midnight.
Stability class.....E.
20 Foot Winds.......East winds 5 to 7 mph.
LVORI...............1.
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain after midnight.
Dispersion..........39 decreasing to 12 early in the evening.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Eye level winds.....East winds 5 to 7 mph.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  PC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC
Weather cov.....                        SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....                        RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm cov........
Temp............63  62  59  56  53  53  52  51  51  50  50  50
RH..............35  37  44  50  58  61  65  68  71  74  77  77
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   6   6   6   6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.17  18  20  21  21  18  15  12  10  10  10  9
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20

.SATURDAY...

Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 61 percent.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
Transport winds.....Southeast 9 to 17 mph increasing to east around
                    23 mph.
Stability class.....C.
20 Foot Winds.......East winds 6 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning. Isolated thunderstorms
                    through the day. Rain showers in the afternoon.
Dispersion..........14 increasing to 35 late in the morning, then
                    increasing to 43 late in the morning decreasing
                    to 38 early in the afternoon increasing to 44.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth to or moderate potential
                    for large plume dominated fire growth.
Eye level winds.....East winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height (AGL).Becoming 4700 ft AGL.
Mixing height (MSL).Becoming 5858 ft MSL.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY CDY
Weather cov.....CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Temp............50  49  51  53  55  57  59  60  59  58  57  56
RH..............78  80  77  73  69  66  64  61  67  72  78  80
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
20 FT wind gust.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Eye lvl wnd dir.E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Eye lvl wnd spd.4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
Eye lvl wnd gst.10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   SE  SE  E   E
Transp wind spd.9   10  14  17  20  17  15  13  15  20  23  23
Chc of pcpn (%).40  40  40  40  40  40  80  80  80  80  80  80

$$
Forecaster...H Cross
Requested by...RL Self
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1807017.1/LZK
.EMAIL rlself@fs.fed.us



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