Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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827 FXUS64 KCRP 070808 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 308 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Key Messages: There`s a moderate to major risk for heat related illness Tuesday and Wednesday There`s a Moderate Risk for Rip currents through Wednesday morning The region will be under a zonal flow aloft with a mid-level low pressure system over the northern Plains and a mid-level high over western Mexico. There`s a few disturbances that will move across the region and will keep silent PoP`s in the forecast but expecting the CAP to be a major limiting factor. The big story here will be the heat. WAA in the lower to mid levels will combine with humid conditions near the surface resulting in a Moderate to a Major risk of heat related impacts across the region Tuesday and Wednesday, According to the NWS Heat Risk tool. Currently, there`s a low to medium chance (30-40%) for Heat Indices of at least 110 degrees across the southern Coastal Plains and southern Coastal Bend for a few hours on Wednesday afternoon. A Heat Advisory may be needed but will hold off issuing for now. Regardless, Don`t get caught off-guard by the first heat of summer as temperatures will ramp-up quickly. Take proper precautions for heat safety, have a plan to stay cool and hydrated, have multiple ways to receive weather alerts and warnings. Have opted to let the Coastal Flood Advisory and the High Rip Current Risk to expire this morning as swell heights/periods have decreased to around 3 ft and 7 seconds respectively. Will keep a moderate risk for rip currents through the period. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 Key Messages: - There is a moderate to major HeatRisk Thursday. - A front Thursday night will usher in drier air and return temperatures to near normal for this time of year. - Moisture returns to the region this weekend bringing increasing rain chances into early next week. Another day of intense heat is expected Thursday with heat index values ranging from 105 to 113 degrees across the region, highest across the inland Coastal Bend. Heat advisories will likely be needed for some locations. Relief to the heat is in store Friday into the weekend as a cold front moves through Thursday night. Confidence in any precipitation with the front remains very low, but if any storms do manage to form, the best chance would be near or north of the Victoria Crossroads. The front will stall out around the area over the weekend with a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms. Deeper moisture looks to stream back in by Sunday. This increase in moisture combined with the subtropical jet setting up over the area and embedded shortwave troughs could lead to increased rain chances late this weekend into early next week. Current long range ensemble models have about a 30 percent chance of at least a quarter inch of rain across much of the Coastal Plains and around a 15 percent chance of at least an inch of rain. This is still a ways out and plenty of uncertainty remains, but it certainly warrants keeping an eye on over the next few days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024 The cloud cover is moving back into the region with the clouds at the coast, with IFR/MVFR CIGs near the coast (NGP) and beginning to move in (few009 at CRP 04Z). The clouds will continue to move inland and will get to LRD and COT somewhere around 08z-10z. Will expect IFR CIGs through the morning before the clearing out again around 15 or 16z. CIGs will remain VFR with occasional MVFR through 00z, and then the clouds will move back into the forecast area, and spread back to the west. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM CDT Tue May 7 2024 A weak to moderate onshore flow increases to moderate flow early Wednesday. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) for showers or thunderstorms today. Moderate onshore flow will continue through Wednesday night. Winds will diminish Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will shift to the northeast Friday and Saturday, then to the east on Sunday. There is a 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 91 77 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 91 74 92 74 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 101 77 107 76 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 96 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 86 77 87 77 / 10 0 0 0 Cotulla 98 77 104 75 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 93 75 100 74 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 87 78 89 78 / 0 0 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345-442- 443-447. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ345- 442-443-447. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...BF/80 LONG TERM....CLM/93 AVIATION...JSL